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Amphenol Predictability Rank


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5 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Amphenol Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Amphenol Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Amphenol's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Amphenol Business Description

Amphenol logo
Industry
Technology » Hardware NAICS : 335929 SIC : 3678
Address
358 Hall Avenue, Wallingford, CT, USA, 06492
Amphenol is a leading designer and manufacturer of electrical, electronic, and fiber-optic connectors and interconnect systems, sensors, and cable. The firm sells into a broad array of industries, including the automotive, industrial, communications, military, and mobile device markets, and no single market makes up more than 25% of the firm's total annual revenue.
Executives
Gavelle Jean-luc officer: Senior Vice President LE GUA, 3 LESCOUT I0 81110
Ehrmanntraut Dieter officer: VP & Grp GM, Automotive Prod GOETHESTRASSE 17 BERGHEIM 2M 50126
Silverman David M officer: Senior VP, Human Resources 20 CRANBROOK ROAD WEST HARTFORD CT 06117
Gu Richard officer: VP,Grp GM Mobile Consumer Prod 9208 PAULESHIN CRESCENT RICHMOND A1 V7E 6P2
Doherty William J officer: SR VP & GGM, AICC 34 PIER 7 CHARLESTOWN MA 02129
Booker Martin officer: VP & Grp General Mgr, AIPG 531 GIFFORD HILL ROAD ONEONTA NY 13820
Lane Rita S. director 1303 E. ALGONQUIN ROAD SCHAUMBURG IL 60196
Norwitt Richard Adam director, officer: President & CEO PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: NORWITT RICHARD ADAM a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Lampo Craig A officer: SR VP & CFO 163 STAGECOACH ROAD DURHAM CT 06422
Walter Luc officer: SR VP & GGM MIL & AERO OPS PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: WALTER LUC a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Clark Stanley L director 5211 PENNOCK POINT ROAD JUPITER FL 33458
Livingston Robert director C/O DOVER CORPORATION 3005 HIGHLAND PARKWAY, SUITE 200 DOWNERS GROVE IL 60515
Craig John D director 2366 BRENVILLE ROAD READING PA 19605
Loeffler Martin H director 3625 HOLLY DRIVE PO BOX 127 TETON VILLAGE WY 83025
Jepsen Edward G director C/O AMPHENOL CORPORATION 358 HALL AVENUE WALLINGFORD CT 06492

Amphenol Headlines

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