CIT Group (CIT Group) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1997. Start your Free Trial

What is CIT Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CIT Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

CIT Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of CIT Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

CIT Group (CIT Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » CIT Group Inc (NYSE:CIT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

11 West 42nd Street, New York, NY, USA, 10036

Website

http://www.cit.com

CIT Group Inc is a banking holding company and a financial holding company operating primarily in North America. It provides financing, leasing, and advisory services primarily to middle-market companies in a diverse group of industries. The company's banking subsidiary mostly operates in Southern California and offers both commercial and retail banking services. The company sources its commercial lending business through direct marketing to customers, vendors, and distributors, among other parties. The company generates revenue by earning interest on loans and investments, as well as commission, fees, and rental income on leased equipment and other financial services. The company also syndicates and sells finance receivables.

Executives

John J. Fawcett	officer: EVP and Chief Financial Office	C/O CIT GROUP INC., 1 CIT DRIVE, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Wahida Plummer	officer: EVP & Chief Risk Officer	C/O CIT GROUP INC. 1 CIT DRIVE, #3251-9 LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Marisa Harney	officer: EVP & Chief Credit Officer	C/O CIT GROUP INC., 1 CIT DRIVE, #3251-9, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Steve Solk	officer: President, Consumer Banking	C/O CIT GROUP INC., ATTN GENERAL COUNSEL 1 CIT DRIVE LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Sheila A Stamps	director	C/O CIT GROUP, 1 CIT DRIVE, ATTN: GENERAL COUNSEL, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Michael L. Brosnan	director	C/O CIT GROUP INC. - GENERAL COUNSEL 1 CIT DRIVE LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Gina M. Proia	officer: EVP & Head of Marketing	C/O CIT GROUP INC., ATTN GENERAL COUNSEL 1 CIT DRIVE LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Denise M. Menelly	officer: EVP, Head of Technology & Ops	C/O CIT GROUP INC., 1 CIT DRIVE LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Edward K Sperling	officer: EVP & Controller	C/O CIT GROUP, 1 CIT DRIVE, #3251-9 LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Ellen R Alemany	director, officer: Chair & CEO	ONE ADP BOULEVARD, ROSELAND NJ 07068
James J Duffy	officer: EVP & Chief HR Officer	C/O CIT GROUP, 11 WEST 42ND ST. NEW YORK NY 10036
Gerald Rosenfeld	director	C/O CIT GROUP INC., 1 CIT DRIVE, #3251-9, LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
David Harnisch	officer: Pres., Commercial Finance	C/O CIT GROUP, 1 CIT DRIVE LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
Alan L Frank	director	C/O CIT GROUP, 1 CIT DRIVE, #3251-9 LIVINGSTON NJ 07039
John R Ryan	director