>
Switch to:

Graco Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1986. Start your Free Trial
3 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Competitive Comparison

For the Specialty Industrial Machinery subindustry, Graco's Predictability Rank, along with its competitors' market caps and Predictability Rank data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

   

Graco Predictability Rank Distribution

For the Industrial Products industry and Industrials sector, Graco's Predictability Rank distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Graco's Predictability Rank falls into.



Graco Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Graco Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Graco's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Graco Business Description

Graco logo
Industry
Industrials » Industrial Products NAICS : 333249 SIC : 3561
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
88-11th Avenue Northeast, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55413
Graco manufactures equipment used for managing fluids, coatings, and adhesives, specializing in difficult-to-handle materials. Graco's business is organized into three segments: industrial, process, and contractor. The Minnesota-based firm serves a wide range of end markets, including industrial, automotive, and construction, and its broad array of products include pumps, valves, meters, sprayers, and equipment used to apply coatings, sealants, and adhesives. The firm generated roughly $1.7 billion in sales and $410 million in operating income in 2020.
Executives
Zumbolo Brian J officer: President, Asia Pacific PO BOX 1441 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Gallivan Karen Park officer: Executive Vice President P O BOX 1441 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Wheeler Kevin J. director A. O. SMITH CORPORATION 500 TENNESSEE WALTZ PARKWAY ASHLAND CITY TN 37015
Van Sant R William director PO BOX 1441 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Eugster Jack W director PO BOX 1441 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Etchart Eric director ROOM F, 22F CROSS REGION PLAZA 899 LINGLING ROAD SHANGHAI F4 200030
White Emily director C/O LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. 1818 CORNWALL AVENUE VANCOUVER A1 V6J 1C7
Morfitt Martha A M director P.O. BOX 1441 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Mitau Lee R director P O BOX 1441 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Feragen Jody H director 1 HORMEL PLACE AUSTIN TX 55912
Gilligan J Kevin director P O BOX 1441 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
White Timothy R officer: President, White Knight, QED 88 11TH AVENUE NE MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413
Johnson Dale D officer: President, Worldwide CED P.O. BOX 1441 MINNEAPOLIS MN 5440-1441
Chambers Caroline M officer: President, EMEA PO BOX 1441 MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Wordell Angela F officer: EVP, Operations, President ONG 88 11TH AVENUE NE MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413

Graco Headlines

Get WordPress Plugins for easy affiliate links on Stock Tickers and Guru Names | Earn affiliate commissions by embedding GuruFocus Charts
GuruFocus Affiliate Program: Earn up to $400 per referral. ( Learn More)