Kingsway Financial Services (Kingsway Financial Services) Predictability Rank

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What is Kingsway Financial Services Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kingsway Financial Services Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kingsway Financial Services (Kingsway Financial Services) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Kingsway Financial Services Inc (NYSE:KFS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

10 S. Riverside Plaza, Suite 1520, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606

Website

https://www.kingsway-financial.com

Kingsway Financial Services Inc through subsidiaries operates in the extended warranty, asset management, and real estate industries in the United States. It operates through three segments: Extended Warranty and Kingsway Search Xcelerator. The Extended Warranty segment provides after-market vehicle protection services distributed by credit unions. The firm generates maximum revenue from Extended Warranty segment in the form of Service fee and commission income.

Executives

Fitzgerald John Taylor Maloney	director, officer: Executive Vice President	KINGSWAY FINANCIAL SERVICES INC., 150 PIERCE ROAD, SUITE 600, ITASCA IL 60143
Kent A Hansen	officer: CFO & EVP	C/O KINGSWAY FINANCIAL SERVICES INC., 150 PIERCE ROAD, SUITE 600, ITASCA IL 60143
Charles L Frischer	director	3156 EAST LAURELHURST DRIVE, NE, SEATTLE WA 98105
Oakmont Capital Inc	10 percent owner	112 ST.CLAIR AVENUE WEST, SUITE 400, ONTARIO Z4 M4V 2Y3
Gregory Paul Hannon	director	OAKMONT CAPITAL INC., 45 ST. CLAIR AVENUE WEST, SUITE 400, TORONTO A6 M4V 1K9
Terence Michael Kavanagh	director	OAKMONT CAPITAL INC., 45 ST. CLAIR AVENUE WEST, SUITE 400, TORONTO A6 M4V 1K9
Joseph Stilwell	director, 10 percent owner	111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Paul R. Hogan	officer: Secretary and General Counsel	150 PIERCE ROAD, SUITE 600, ITASCA IL 60143
Porcelli Corissa B.	director	150 PIERCE ROAD, SUITE 600, ITASCA IL 60143
Stilwell Associates L P	10 percent owner	111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Stilwell Activist Investments, L.p.	10 percent owner	111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Stilwell Activist Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Stilwell Value Partners Vii, L.p.	10 percent owner	111 BROADWAY, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10006
Hickey William August Jr	officer: Executive VP, COO and CFO	KINGSWAY FINANCIAL SERVICES, INC., 150 PIERCE ROAD, SUITE 600, ITASCA IL 60143
Douglas Levine	director	2602 NW 5TH AVENUE, MIAMI FL 33127