Lowe's (Lowe's) Predictability Rank

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Lowe's Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Lowe's (Lowe's) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Lowe's Companies Inc (NYSE:LOW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

LOW:Mexico LWE:Germany LWE:Germany LOWC34:Brazil

Address

1000 Lowes Boulevard, Mooresville, NC, USA, 28117

Website

https://www.lowes.com

Lowe's is the second-largest home improvement retailer in the world, operating more than 1,700 stores in the United States, after the 2023 divestiture of its Canadian locations (RONA, Lowe's Canada, Réno-Dépôt, and Dick's Lumber). The firm's stores offer products and services for home decorating, maintenance, repair, and remodeling, with maintenance and repair accounting for two thirds of products sold. Lowe's targets retail do-it-yourself (around 75% of sales) and do-it-for-me customers as well as commercial and professional business clients (around 25% of sales). We estimate Lowe's captures a low-double-digit share of the domestic home improvement market, based on U.S. Census data and management's market size estimates.

Executives

Janice Dupre Little	officer: EVP Human Resources	1000 LOWES BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Joseph Michael Mcfarland	officer: EVP, Stores	1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Quonta D Vance	officer: EVP, Pro & Home Services	1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Donald Frieson	officer: EVP, Supply Chain	1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
William P Boltz	officer: EVP, Merchandising	1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Seemantini Godbole	officer: EVP, Chief Information Officer	1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Juliette Williams Pryor	officer: EVP, CLO & Corp. Sec.	1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Ross W Mccanless	officer: SR VP Gen Counsel & Secretary
Scott H Baxter	director	400 NORTH ELM STREET, GREENSBORO NC 27401
Taylor Colleen	director	C/O BILL.COM HOLDINGS, INC., 1800 EMBARCADERO ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Brandon J Sink	officer: EVP, Chief Financial Officer	1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Stone West Mary E	director	C/O HASBRO, INC., 1011 NEWPORT AVENUE, PAWTUCKET RI 02861
Daniel J Heinrich	director	CLOROX CO, 1221 BROADWAY, OAKLAND CA 94612
David H Batchelder	director	1000 LOWE'S BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117
Griggs Dan Clayton Jr	officer: Vice President, CAO	1000 LOWES BOULEVARD, MOORESVILLE NC 28117