Smartsheet (Smartsheet) Predictability Rank

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What is Smartsheet Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Smartsheet Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Smartsheet (Smartsheet) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Smartsheet Inc (NYSE:SMAR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

3SE:Germany 3SE:Germany

Address

500 108th Avenue North East, Suite 200, Bellevue, WA, USA, 98004

Website

https://www.smartsheet.com

Smartsheet is a provider of collaborative work management software delivered via a cloud-based, software-as-a-service model. The firm's solution offers scalable, dynamic tools to improve the efficiency of project and process management across countless use cases. Smartsheet's offering supports workflow management across teams, provides real-time visibility into projects, and reporting and automation capabilities. The firm generates revenue via software subscriptions on a per-user basis, and incremental charges for added platform capabilities.

Executives

Jolene Lau Marshall	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O SMARTSHEET INC., 10500 NE 8TH STREET, #1, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Michael Arntz	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O SMARTSHEET INC., 10500 NE 8TH ST, STE 1300, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Pete Godbole	officer: CFO & Treasurer	C/O SMARTSHEET INC., 10500 NE 8TH ST. #1, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Alissa Jamese Abdullah	director	C/O SMARTSHEET INC., 10500 NE 8TH ST. #1300, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Mark Patrick Mader	director, officer: President and CEO	3514 45TH AVE NE, SEATTLE WA 98105
James N White	director	755 PAGE MILL ROAD, SUITE A-200, PALO ALTO CA 94304-1005
Geoffrey T Barker	director	1 MARKET PLAZA, STEUART TOWER, SUITE 800, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Khozema Shipchandler	director	C/O PIVOTAL SOFTWARE, INC., 875 HOWARD STREET, FIFTH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Michael P Gregoire	director	C/O CA, INC., ONE CA PLAZA, ISLANDIA NY 11749
Stephen Robert Branstetter	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O SMARTSHEET INC., 10500 NE 8TH STREET, #1, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Elena Gomez	director	TOAST, INC., 401 PARK DRIVE, BOSTON MA 02215
Megan Hansen	officer: Chief People & Culture Officer	C/O SMARTSHEET INC., 10500 NE 8TH ST. #1300, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Dennis M Durkin	director	C/O ACTIVISION BLIZZARD, INC., 3100 OCEAN PARK BLVD, SANTA MONICA CA 90405
Andrew Lee Bennett	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O SMARTSHEET INC., 10500 NE 8TH STREET, #1, BELLEVUE WA 98004
Matthew S Mcilwain	director	1000 SECOND AVENUE, SUITE 3700, SEATTLE WA 98104