What is Ocugen Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Ocugen Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Ocugen (Ocugen) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
11 Great Valley Parkway, Malvern, PA, USA, 19355
Ocugen Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on discovering, developing, and commercializing gene therapies to cure blindness diseases and developing a vaccine to save lives from COVID-19. The breakthrough modifier gene therapy platform has the potential to treat multiple retinal diseases with one drug one to many and novel biologic product candidate aims to offer better therapy to patients with underserved diseases such as wet age-related macular degeneration, diabetic macular edema and diabetic retinopathy. The company is co-developing Bharat Biotech's COVAXIN vaccine candidate for COVID-19 in the U.S. and Canadian markets.
Executives
| Junge Zhang |
director |
5 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 160, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Quan Anh Vu |
officer: CFO/CBO |
22616 ERWIN STREET, WOODLAND HILLS CA 91367 |
| Shankar Musunuri |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
5 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 160, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Arun Upadhyay |
officer: Chief Scientific Officer |
C/O OCUGEN, INC., 11 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Ramesh Kumar |
director |
375 PHEASANT RUN, NEWTOWN PA 18940 |
| Kirsten Castillo |
director |
5 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 160, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Uday Kompella |
director |
5 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 160, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Prabhavathi Fernandes |
director |
114 MILTON AVENUE, CHAPEL HILL NC 27514 |
| Marna C Whittington |
director |
2959 BARLEY MILL ROAD, YORKLYN DE 19736 |
| Jessica Crespo |
officer: CAO/SVP, Finance |
C/O OCUGEN, INC., 263 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Sanjay Subramanian |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
5 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 160, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Manish Potti |
director |
C/O OCUGEN, INC., 5 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 150, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Vijay Tammara |
officer: Vice President |
5 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 160, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Suha Taspolatoglu |
director |
5 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 160, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Kelly Beck |
officer: Vice President |
5 GREAT VALLEY PARKWAY, SUITE 160, MALVERN PA 19355 |
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