OneSpaWorld Holdings (OneSpaWorld Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is OneSpaWorld Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

OneSpaWorld Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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OneSpaWorld Holdings (OneSpaWorld Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Travel & Leisure » OneSpaWorld Holdings Ltd (NAS:OSW) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ORW:Germany

Address

Pineapple Business Park, Office Number 2, P.O. Box N-624, Airport Industrial Park, Nassau, BHS

Website

https://www.onespaworld.com

OneSpaWorld Holdings Ltd is an operator of health and wellness centers onboard cruise ships and an operator of health and wellness centers at destination resorts worldwide. It offers a suite of premium health, fitness, beauty, and wellness services and products. The services provided by the company include body, salon, and skin care services and products, fitness classes and personal fitness training and pain management, detoxifying programs, and comprehensive body composition analyses among others. The company has only one single segment of Maritime and Destination Resorts.

Executives

Steiner Leisure Ltd	director, 10 percent owner	STE 104A, SAFFREY SQ, NASSAU C5 00000
Andrew R Heyer	director	501 MADISON AVENUE, FLOOR 5, NEW YORK NY 10019
Walter Field Mclallen	director	1225 17TH AVE SOUTH, NASHVILLE TN 37212
Lisa Myers	director	LOBOSKY MANAGEMENT CO. LTD., OFFICE #2, AIRPORT INDUSTRIAL PARK, BOX N-624, NASSAU C5 0000
Stephen Lazarus	officer: See Remarks	C/O STEINER MANAGEMENT SERVICES, 770 S. DIXIE HWY. #200, CORAL GABLES FL 33145
Leonard I Fluxman	director, officer: Executive Chairman	STEINER LEISURE LIMITED, 770 S DIXIE HIGHWAY SUITE 200, CORAL GABLES FL 33146
Steven J Heyer	director, officer: Vice Chairman	1111 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, WHITE PLAINS NY 10604
Stephen W. Powell	director	770 S. DIXIE HIGHWAY, SUITE 200, CORAL GABLES FL 33146
Glenn Fusfield	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	STEINER LEISURE LTD, 770 SOUTH DIXIE HIGHWAY SUITE 200, CORAL GABLES FL 33146
Susan Reardon Bonner	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O ONESPAWORLD, 770 SOUTH DIXIE HIGHWAY, CORAL GABLES FL 33146
Adam Hasiba	director	770 SOUTH DIXIE HWY, SUITE 200, CORAL GABLES FL 33146
Maryam Banikarim	director	C/O GANNETT CO., INC., 7950 JONES BRANCH DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22107
Marc Magliacano	director	C/O CATTERTON MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC, 599 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Jeffrey E Stiefler	director	C/O INTUIT INC., 2700 COAST AVENUE, MOUNTAIN VIEW CA 94043
Nemo Investor Aggregator, Ltd	10 percent owner	C/O CATTERTON MANAGEMENT COMPANY LLC, 599 WEST PUTNAM AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830