PBF Energy (PBF Energy) Predictability Rank

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What is PBF Energy Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

PBF Energy Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

PBF Energy Predictability Rank Related Terms

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PBF Energy (PBF Energy) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » PBF Energy Inc (NYSE:PBF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PBF:Mexico PEN:Germany PEN:Germany

Address

One Sylvan Way, Second Floor, Parsippany, NJ, USA, 07054

Website

https://www.pbfenergy.com

PBF Energy Inc is an independent petroleum refiner and supplier of unbranded transportation fuels, heating oil, petrochemical feedstocks, lubricants, and other petroleum products in the United States. The company owns refineries in Delaware, Ohio, New Jersey, California, and Louisiana. The Company operates in two reportable business segments: Refining and Logistics. The Company's oil refineries are all engaged in the refining of crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products and are aggregated into the Refining segment. PBFX operates logistics assets such as crude oil and refined products terminals, pipelines and storage facilities. The Logistics segment consists solely of PBFX's operations.

Executives

Control Empresarial De Capitales S.a. De C.v.	10 percent owner, other: Add'l Rep. Persons-see Ex.99-1	INSURGENTES SUR #3500, PB, COL. PENA POBRE, DELEGACION TLALPAN, CP, MEXICO D.F. O5 14060
Trecia M Canty	officer: SVP and General Counsel	1 SYLVAN WAY, 2ND FLOOR, C/O PBF ENERGY INC., PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
James E. Fedena	officer: Senior Vice President	1 SYLVAN WAY, SECOND FLOOR, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
O Connor Thomas L	officer: Senior Vice President	ONE SYLVAN WAY, SECOND FLOOR, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Damian W. Wilmot	director	C/O HARBORONE BANCORP, INC., 770 OAK STREET, BROCKTON MA 02301
Georganne Hodges	director	2105 CITYWEST BLVD., SUITE 100, HOUSTON TX 77042
Lawrence Michael Ziemba	director	600 NORTH DAIRY ASHFORD, HOUSTON TX 77079
Matthew C. Lucey	officer: President	C/O PBF ENERGY INC., ONE SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
S Eugene Edwards	director	P.O. BOX 696000, SAN ANTONIO TX 78269-6000
John C Barone	officer: Principal Accounting Officer	1 SYLVAN WAY, SECOND FLOOR, C/O PBF ENERGY INC., PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
George E. Ogden	director	1 SYLVAN WAY, SECOND FLOOR, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Karen Berriman Davis	director	123 WEST MILLS AVENUE, SUITE 200, EL PASO TX 79901
Thomas J. Nimbley	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O PBF ENERGY INC., ONE SYLVAN WAY, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
C Erik Young	officer: Chief Financial Officer, SVP	C/O PBF ENERGY INC., 1 SYLVAN WAY, SECOND FLOOR, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Tai Wendy Ho	officer: Senior Vice President, HR	ONE SYLVAN WAY, SECOND FLOOR, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054