Pivotal Investment III (Pivotal Investment III) Predictability Rank

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What is Pivotal Investment III Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pivotal Investment III Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pivotal Investment III (Pivotal Investment III) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Pivotal Investment Corp III (OTCPK:PICC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

c/o Graubard Miller, 405 Lexington Avenue, The Chrysler Building, New York, NY, USA, 10174

Website

https://www.pivotalic.com

Pivotal Investment Corp III is a blank check company.

Executives

Jonathan J Ledecky	director, 10 percent owner	C/O THE LEDECKY FOUNDATION, 901 - 15TH STREET, NW, SUITE 950, WASHINGTON DC 20005
Kevin Griffin	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O PIVOTAL ACQUISITION CORP., C/O GRAUBARD MILLER, 405 LEXINGTON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10174
Pivotal Investment Holdings Iii Llc	10 percent owner	C/O GRAUBARD MILLER, 405 LEXINGTON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10174
Kristen Dumont	director	C/O KHOSLA VENTURES ACQUISITION CO. IV, 2128 SAND HILL RD, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Katherine Oliver	director	100 EAST RIDGE ROAD, RIDGEFIELD CT 06877
James Hr Brady	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1850 CENTENNIAL PARK DRIVE, SUITE 200, RESTON VA 20191
Katrina Adams	director	C/O PIVOTAL ACQUISITION CORP., C/O GRAUBARD MILLER, 405 LEXINGTON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10174
Sarah Sclarsic	director	C/O PIVOTAL INVESTMENT CORPORATION II, C/O GRAUBARD MILLER, 405 LEXINGTON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10174
Greg Racz	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O OCTAVIAN GLOBAL PARTNERS, LLC, 650 MADISON AVENUE, 26TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022

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