What is Paratek Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Paratek Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Paratek Pharmaceuticals (Paratek Pharmaceuticals) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
75 Park Plaza, 4th Floor, Boston, MA, USA, 02116
Paratek Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The company's medical research is based on tetracycline chemistry and biology to create two antibacterials: omadacycline and sarecycline. NUZYRA (Omadacycline) is an antibacterial for skin infections and treatment of community-acquired bacterial pneumonia. SEYSARA (Sarecycline) is designed for use in the treatment of acne and rosacea. Paratek Pharmaceuticals is also involved in research to treat multiple sclerosis, spinal muscular atrophy, and systemic inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis and inflammatory bowel diseases.
Executives
| Minnie Baylor-henry |
director |
C/O SCPHARMACUETICALS, INC., 2400 DISTRICT AVENUE SUITE 310, BURLINGTON MA 01803 |
| Kristine Peterson |
director |
AMARIN CORPORATION, MYSTIC PACKER BLDG., 12 ROOSEVELT AVENUE, MYSTIC CT 06355 |
| Timothy R Franson |
director |
320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108 |
| Jeffrey Stein |
director |
6310 NANCY RIDGE DRIVE, SUITE 101, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Thomas John Dietz |
director |
C/O TRANSCEPT PHARMACEUTICAL, INC., 1003 W. CUTTING BLVD, STE 110, PT. RICHMOND CA 94804 |
| Evan Loh |
director, officer: CEO |
75 KNEELAND STREET, BOSTON MA 02111 |
| William M. Haskel |
officer: CLO, General Counsel & Sec. |
ONE MEADOWLANDS PLAZA, EAST RUTHERFORD NJ 07073 |
| Adam Woodrow |
officer: President & Chief Commercial |
C/O PARATEK PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 75 KNEELAND STREET, BOSTON MA 02111 |
| Randall B. Brenner |
officer: Chief Development & Regulatory |
C/O PARATEK PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 75 PARK PLAZA, 4TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02116 |
| Robert S Radie |
director |
101 LINDENWOOD DRIVE, SUITE 225, MALVERN PA 19355 |
| Rolf K Hoffmann |
director |
LORBEERWEG 7, WEGGIS V8 CH-6353 |
| Michael Bigham |
director, officer: Exec. Chairman of the Board |
890 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| James D Dondero |
10 percent owner |
300 CRESCENT COURT, SUITE 700, DALLAS TX 75201 |
| Douglas W. Pagan |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
75 KNEELAND STREET, BOSTON MA 02111 |
| Omega Fund Iv, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
888 BOYLSTON ST., SUITE 1111, BOSTON MA 02199 |
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