Pioneer Natural Resources Co (Pioneer Natural Resources Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Pioneer Natural Resources Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Pioneer Natural Resources Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Pioneer Natural Resources Co (Pioneer Natural Resources Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Pioneer Natural Resources Co (NYSE:PXD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

PXD:Mexico 1PXD:Italy PNK:Germany PNK:Germany P1IO34:Brazil

Address

777 Hidden Ridge, Irving, TX, USA, 75038

Website

https://www.pxd.com

Headquartered in Irving, Texas, Pioneer Natural Resources is an independent oil and gas exploration and production company focusing on the Permian Basin in Texas. At year-end 2022, Pioneer's proven reserves were 2.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent with net production for the year of 650 mboe per day. Oil and natural gas liquids represented 79% of production.

Executives

Mark H Kleinman	officer: EVP & General Counsel	777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038
Maria S. Dreyfus	director	125 WEST 55TH STREET, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Bonnie S. Black	officer: SVP, Technology & Ops Support	777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038
Jacinto J Hernandez	director	777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038
Christopher L Washburn	officer: Interim CAO	777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038
Mark Stephen Berg	officer: EVP, GEN. COUNSEL & SECTY	777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038
Tyson L. Taylor	officer: SVP, Human Resources	5205 N O'CONNOR BLVD., SUITE 200, IRVING TX 75039
Phoebe A Wood	director	PO BOX 1080, LOUISVILLE KY 40201
Stacy P. Methvin	director	777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038
Lori George Billingsley	director	777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038
Royce Mitchell	director	777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038
Hall Jerome D Jr	officer: EVP, Operations	777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038
Frank A Risch	director	PIONEER NATURAL RESOURCES COMPANY, 5205 N. O'CONNOR BLVD, STE 900, IRVING TX 75039
Chris J Cheatwood	officer: EXEC VP WORLDWIDE EXPLORATION	777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038
Neal H Shah	officer: SVP and CFO	777 HIDDEN RIDGE, IRVING TX 75038