Remitly Global (Remitly Global) Predictability Rank

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What is Remitly Global Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Remitly Global Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Remitly Global (Remitly Global) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Remitly Global Inc (NAS:RELY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

ALTR DLO TENB AFRM S INFA WIX QLYS TDC SPSC MSFT ORCL ADBE PANW SNPS VMW FTNT CRWD PLTR SQ

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1111 Third Avenue, Suite 2100, Seattle, WA, USA, 98101

Website

https://www.remitly.com

Remitly Global Inc provides integrated financial services to immigrants, including helping customers send money internationally in a quick, reliable, and more cost-effective manner by leveraging digital channels. It supports cross-border transmissions across the globe. The company's revenue is generated on transaction fees charged to customers and foreign exchange spreads between the foreign exchange rate offered to customers and the foreign exchange rate on the company's currency purchases.

Executives

Rene Yoakum	officer: EVP, Customer and Culture	C/O REMITLY GLOBAL, INC., 1111 3RD AVE., 21ST FLOOR, SEATTLE WA 98101
Bora Chung	director	C/O BILL.COM HOLDINGS, INC., 1810 EMBARCADERO ROAD, PALO ALTO CA 94303
Matthew B. Oppenheimer	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1111 THIRD AVENUE, ST. 2100, C/O REMITLY GLOBAL, INC., SEATTLE WA 98101
Hemanth Munipalli	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O REMITLY GLOBAL, INC., 1111 THIRD AVENUE, SUITE 2100, SEATTLE WA 98101
Joshua Hug	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	1111 THIRD AVENUE, ST. 2100, C/O REMITLY GLOBAL, INC., SEATTLE WA 98101
Ankur Sinha	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O REMITLY GLOBAL, INC., 1111 3RD AVE., 21ST FLOOR, SEATTLE WA 98101
Nigel W Morris	director	1680 CAPITAL ONE DRIVE, MCLEAN VA 22102
Gail A Miller	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O REMITLY GLOBAL, INC., 1111 3RD AVE., 21ST FLOOR, SEATTLE, WA 98101
Phyllis J Campbell	director	C/O AIR TRANSPORT SERVICES GROUP, INC., 145 HUNTER DRIVE, WILMINGTON OH 45177
Ryno Blignaut	director	C/O XOOM CORPORATION, 100 BUSH STREET, SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Stripes Holdings, Llc	10 percent owner	402 WEST 13TH ST., 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Stripes Iii, Lp	10 percent owner	402 WEST 13TH STREET, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Stripes Gp Iii, Llc	10 percent owner	402 WEST 13TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Kenneth A Fox	10 percent owner
William Kazuo Bryant	director	1111 THIRD AVENUE, ST. 2100, C/O REMITLY GLOBAL, INC., SEATTLE WA 98101