Repligen (Repligen) Predictability Rank

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What is Repligen Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Repligen Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Repligen (Repligen) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Repligen Corp (NAS:RGEN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

RGN:Germany RGN:Germany

Address

41 Seyon Street, Building 1, Suite 100, Waltham, MA, USA, 02453

Website

https://www.repligen.com

Repligen Corp is a global life sciences company. It develops and commercializes innovative bioprocessing technologies and systems that increase efficiencies and flexibility in the process of manufacturing biological drugs. The company's customers include life science companies, global biopharmaceutical companies, and contract manufacturers worldwide. Repligen markets its products globally through a direct commercial organization in the U.S., Europe, and Asia, as well as through strategic partners in select markets. The majority of the company's revenue is generated in North America.

Executives

Christine Gebski	officer: See Remarks	C/O REPLIGEN CORPORATION, 41 SYON ST. BLDG. 1, SUITE 100, WALTHAM MA 02453
Olivier Loeillot	officer: President and CCO	C/O REPLIGEN CORPORATION, 41 SEYON STREET, BUILDING 1, SUITE 100, WALTHAM MA 02453
Jason K Garland	officer: CFO	10000 WEHRLE DRIVE, CLARENCE NY 14031
Karen A Dawes	director	579 BELLEVUE AVE, NEWPORT RI 02840
Martin D Madaus	director	290 CONCORD ROAD, BILLERICA MA 01821
Jon Snodgres	officer: CFO	REPLIGEN CORPORATION, 41 SEYON STREET, BUILDING #1, SUITE 100, WALTHAM MA 02435
Anthony Hunt	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	41 SEYON STREET, BUILDING 1, SUITE 100, WALTHAM MA 02452
Ralf Kuriyel	officer: Senior VP, R&D	41 SEYON ST, BLDG 1, STE. 100, WALTHAM MA 02452
James Bylund	officer: SVP, Global Operations & IT	C/O REPLIGEN CORPORATION, 41 SYON ST. BLDG. SUITE 100, WALTHAM MA 02453
Konstantin Konstantinov	director	C/O CODIAK BIOSCIENCES, INC., 500 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, 9TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Manner Carrie Eglinton	director	C/O QUEST DIAGNOSTICS, 500 PLAZA DRIVE, SECAUCUS NJ 07094
Ryan Thomas F Jr	director
Nicolas Barthelemy	director	1750 BELLA LAGUNA CT, ENCINITAS CA 92024
John Cox	director	C/O BIOVERATIV INC., 225 SECOND AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
Rohin Mhatre	director	C/O REPLIGEN CORP., 41 SEYON STREET, BUILDING 1, SUITE 100, WALTHAM MA 02453