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Randolph Bancorp Predictability Rank


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Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Randolph Bancorp Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Randolph Bancorp Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Randolph Bancorp's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Randolph Bancorp Business Description

Randolph Bancorp logo
Industry
Financial Services » Banks NAICS : 522110 SIC : 6022
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
10 Cabot Place, Stoughton, MA, USA, 02072
Randolph Bancorp Inc is a bank holding company of Envision Bank. The company is engaged in providing financial services to individuals, families, and small to mid-size businesses. The business of the company includes accepting deposits from the public and investing those deposits, commercial real estate loans, construction loans, investment securities, and consumer loans. The firm also offers deposit accounts, certificates of deposit, and money market accounts. The company has two reporting segments; Envision Bank, which is the key revenue generating segment; and Envision Mortgage. Envision Mortgage consists primarily of gains on loan origination and sales activities, loan servicing income and interest income on loans held for sale and residential construction loans.
Executives
Kirwin Ryan J. officer: EVP/Residential Lending C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Parent William M director, officer: President and CEO C/O GRAIL INVESTMENT CORP. 767 THIRD AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR NEW YORK NY 10017
Olson Richard D. Jr. officer: SVP/Retail & Marketing C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Pierce Richard C. director C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Wentzell Janis E. director C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Welch James G. director C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Trubiano Louis J. director C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Joyce Daniel M. director C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Messmore Lauren officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer 320 NORWOOD PARK SOUTH NORWOOD MA 02062
Quigley Kenneth K Jr director PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN"> Ownership Information: QUIGLEY KENNETH K JR a.header:link {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:visited {color: #3b4fae; font-weight: bold; text-decoration: underline;} a.header:hover {color: #191970;}
Foresta Thomas A. officer: SVP/CIO C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Curry Nancy J. officer: SVP/Commercial Lending C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Thaxter Donna L. officer: SVP/Residential Operations C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Devlin Michael K officer: EVP, CFO and Treasurer C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072
Mcdonough James P director, officer: President and CEO C/O RANDOLPH BANCORP, INC. 10 CABOT PLACE STOUGHTON MA 02072

Randolph Bancorp Headlines

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