Shell Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:SHLX) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2014. Start your Free Trial

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Shell Midstream Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Shell Midstream Partners LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Shell Midstream Partners LP's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Shell Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:SHLX) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Shell Midstream Partners LP (NYSE:SHLX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

150 North Dairy Ashford Road, A0482-A, Houston, TX, USA, 77079

Website

http://www.shellmidstreampartners.com

Shell Midstream Partners LP is a US-based limited partnership that is formed to own, operate, develop and acquire pipelines and other midstream assets. The company holds an interest in several entities which own crude oil, refined products and natural gas pipelines, and crude tank storage and terminal system. It provides a transportation and storage facility to deliver refined products from Gulf Coast markets to demand centers. The company earns revenue through the long-term transportation agreements by charging fees for the transportation of crude oil and refined products through its pipelines.

Executives

Sopc Holdings West Llc	10 percent owner	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD RD., HOUSTON TX 77079
Fierro A Carlos	director	910 LOUISIANA STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002
Gregory T. Mouras	officer: Vice President, Operations	P.O. BOX 61933, NEW ORLEANS LA 70161
Cynthia V. Hablinski	director	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD, HOUSTON TX 77079
Sean Guillory	officer: Vice President, Commercial	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD, HOUSTON TX 77079
David A. Connolly	director	1000 MAIN STREET, LEVEL 12, HOUSTON TX 77002
Stanley Jesse C. H.	officer: Vice President, Operations	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD, HOUSTON TX 77079
Anne C. Anderson	director	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD, HOUSTON TX 77079
James J Bender	director	1601 UTICA AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 900, ST. LOUIS PARK MN 55416
Nick Arzymanow	officer: Controller	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD, HOUSTON TX 77079
Brenda Stout	director	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77079
Curtis R Frasier	director	910 LOUISIANA STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002
Steven Ledbetter	officer: Vice President - Commercial	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77079
Marcel Teunissen	director	150 N. DAIRY ASHFORD ROAD, HOUSTON TX 77079
Elaine Mccown	officer: Controller	ONE SHELL PLAZA, 910 LOUISIANA STREET, HOUSTON TX 77002