Spectrum Brands Holdings (Spectrum Brands Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Spectrum Brands Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Spectrum Brands Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Spectrum Brands Holdings (Spectrum Brands Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Spectrum Brands Holdings Inc (NYSE:SPB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

H221:Germany

Address

3001 Deming Way, Middleton, WI, USA, 53562

Website

https://www.spectrumbrands.com

Spectrum Brands Holdings Inc is consumer products and home essentials company. The company is a supplier of consumer batteries, residential locksets, residential builders' hardware, grooming products and personal care products. The company manages the businesses in product-focused segments; Home and Personal Care, global Pet Care, Home and Garden. The Company manufactures, markets and distributes its products globally in the North America, Europe, Middle East & Africa, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific.

Executives

David M Maura	director, officer: Executive Chairman and CEO	C/O MOSAIC ACQUISITION CORP., 375 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10152
Ehsan Zargar	officer: EVP, GC & Corporate Secretary	C/O HRG GROUP, INC., 450 PARK AVENUE, 29TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Joan Kai Chow	director	215 W DIEHL ROAD, NAPERVILLE IL 60563
Leslie Lloyd Campbell	director	C/O SPECTRUM BRANDS HOLDINGS, INC., 3001 DEMING WAY, MIDDLETON WI 53562
Daniel L Karpel	officer: VP, Corporate Controller & CAO	3001 DEMING WAY, MIDDLETON WI 53562
Jeremy W Smeltser	officer: EVP & CFO	13515 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Rebeckah Long	officer: SVP & Global HR	C/O SPECTRUM BRANDS HOLDINGS, INC., 3001 DEMING WAY, MIDDLETON WI 53562
Randal D. Lewis	officer: EVP & COO	C/O SPECTRUM BRANDS HOLDINGS, INC., 3001 DEMING WAY, MIDDLETON WI 53562
Sherianne James	director	C/O SPECTRUM BRANDS HOLDINGS, INC., 3001 DEMING WAY, MIDDLETON WI 53562
Hugh R Rovit	director	C/O ONEIDA LTD., 163-181 KENWOOD AVENUE, ONEIDA NY 13421
Terry Polistina	director	5980 MIAMI LAKES DRIVE, MIAMI LAKES FL 33014
Anne Sempowski Ward	director	C/O VANDA PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 2200 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE, SUITE 300E, WASHINGTON DC 20037
Gautam Patel	director	C/O AMNEAL PHARMACEUTICALS LLC, 400 CROSSING BLVD, BRIDGEWATER NJ 08807
Jefferies Financial Group Inc.	10 percent owner	520 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
David Harris	director	237 PARK AVENUE - SUITE 900, NEW YORK NY 10017