SiriusPoint (SiriusPoint) Predictability Rank

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What is SiriusPoint Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

SiriusPoint Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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SiriusPoint (SiriusPoint) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » SiriusPoint Ltd (NYSE:SPNT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

SPNTpB.PFD:USA

Address

3 Waterloo Lane, Point Building, Pembroke, BMU, HM 08

Website

https://www.siriuspt.com

SiriusPoint Ltd provides property and casualty reinsurance coverage to insurance and reinsurance companies in the United States, Bermuda, the United Kingdom, and Europe. The company operates through two operating segments: Reinsurance and Insurance & Services. The company's product portfolio consists of reinsurance contracts for property insurance including both residential and commercial properties, workers' compensation, personal automobile, businesses' general liability insurance, professional liability insurance to protect professional advisors and service providers, agriculture insurance, and mortgage insurance.

Executives

Wei Han Tan	director	SUITE 1307, BEA TOWER, 66 HUA YUAN SHI QIAO ROAD, SHANGHAI F4 200120
De La Gueronniere Rafe	director	THE WATERFRONT, CHESNEY HOUSE, 96 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Mehdi Mahmud	director	1345 AVENUES OF AMERICAS, 48TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10105
Daniel S Loeb	director	THIRD POINT LLC, 390 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Bronislaw Edmund Masojada	director	POINT BUILDING, 3 WATERLOO LANE, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Robin Gibbs	officer: CEO, SiriusPoint International	POINT BUILDING, 3 WATERLOO LANE, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Gretchen A. Hayes	director	POINT HOUSE, 3 WATERLOO LANE, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Stephen Yendall	officer: Chief Financial Officer	POINT BUILDING, 3 WATERLOO LANE, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Scott Egan	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	POINT BUILDING, 3 WATERLOO LANE, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Jason Robart	director	POINT BUILDING, 3 WATERLOO LANE, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Andreas Kull	officer: Chief Risk Officer	POINT BUILDING, 3 WATERLOO LANE, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Daniel V. Malloy	officer: EVP, Underwriting	THE WATERFRONT, CHESNEY HOUSE, 96 PITTS BAY ROAD, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Anthony L Lehan	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	POINT HOUSE, 3 WATERLOO LANE, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Ming Zhang	officer: Chief Investment Officer	POINT HOUSE, 3 WATERLOO LANE, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08
Franklin Iv Montross	director	POINT HOUSE, 3 WATERLOO LANE, PEMBROKE D0 HM 08