What is Sunlight Financial Holdings Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Sunlight Financial Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Sunlight Financial Holdings (Sunlight Financial Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
101 North Tryon Street, Suite 1000, Charlotte, NC, USA, 28246
Sunlight Financial Holdings Inc is a technology-enabled point-of-sale finance company. It partners with contractors nationwide to provide homeowners with financing for the installation of residential solar systems and other home improvements. It's technology and deep credit expertise simplify and streamline consumer finance, ensuring a fast and frictionless process for both contractors and homeowners. It earns revenue in two streams: platform fees earned on each loan facilitated via Orange and fees earned for loan portfolio management, servicing, and administration services.
Executives
| Matthew Potere |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
101 N. TRYON STREET, STE. 1000, CHARLOTTE NC 28246 |
| Rodney Yoder |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
101 N. TRYON STREET, SUITE 1000, CHARLOTTE NC 28246 |
| Timothy Parsons |
officer: EVP and COO |
101 N. TRYON STREET, STE. 1000, CHARLOTTE NC 28246 |
| Apollo Principal Holdings Iii Gp Ltd |
10 percent owner |
C/O INTERTRUST CORPORATE SERVICES, (CAYMAN) LIMITED, 190 ELGIN STREET, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-9005 |
| Apollo Anrp Capital Management Iii, Llc |
10 percent owner |
9 WEST 57TH ST., 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Apollo Anrp Advisors Iii, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
9 WEST 57TH ST., 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Ap Spartan Energy Holdings Ii, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
9 WEST 57TH ST, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Spartan Acquisition Sponsor Ii Llc |
10 percent owner |
9 WEST 57TH STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Aph Holdings, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
ONE MANHATTANVILLE ROAD, SUITE 201, PURCHASE NY 10577 |
| Barry Edinburg |
officer: EVP and CFO |
101 N. TRYON STREET, SUITE 1000, CHARLOTTE NC 28246 |
| William B Miller |
officer: Managing Director Acct Finance |
C/O SUNLIGHT FINANCIAL HOLDINGS INC., 101 N. TRYON STREET, SUITE 1000, CHARLOTTE NC 28246 |
| Scott Mulloy |
officer: EVP and CIO |
101 N. TRYON STREET, STE. 1000, CHARLOTTE NC 28246 |
| Kenneth Shea |
director |
2277 PLAZA DRIVE, SUITE 500, SUGAR LAND TX 77479 |
| Tiger Infrastructure Partners Co-invest B Lp |
10 percent owner |
717 FIFTH AVENUE, FLOOR 12A, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Ftv V, L.p. |
10 percent owner |
555 CALIFORNIA STREET, SUITE 2900, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104 |
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