Turning Point Brands (Turning Point Brands) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2016. Start your Free Trial

What is Turning Point Brands Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Turning Point Brands Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Turning Point Brands Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Turning Point Brands's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Turning Point Brands (Turning Point Brands) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Tobacco Products » Turning Point Brands Inc (NYSE:TPB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0T5:Germany

Address

5201 Interchange Way, Louisville, KY, USA, 40229

Website

https://www.turningpointbrands.com

Turning Point Brands Inc operates as an independent provider of Other Tobacco Products (OTP) in the U.S. It offers a wide range of products across the OTP spectrum including moist snuff tobacco (MST), loose-leaf chewing tobacco, premium cigarette papers, make- your-own (MYO) cigar wraps, cigars, liquid vapor products, and tobacco vaporizer products. It operates in three segments namely Zig-Zag products; Stoker's products and NewGen products. The company generates maximum revenue from the Zig-Zag products segment.

Executives

Stephen Usher	director	5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229
David Edward Glazek	director, officer: Executive Chairman	767 FIFTH AVENUE 12TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10153
Graham Purdy	officer: President & CEO	12442 POPLAR WOOD DRIVE, GOSHEN KY 40026
Brittani Cushman	officer: Sr VP, General Counsel	5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229
Luis Reformina	officer: Sr VP, CFO	5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229
Rohith Reddy	director	5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229
Zimmerman Arnold	director	925 PARK AVE, 2A, NEW YORK NY 10028
Assia Grazioli-venier	director	C/O MARQUEE RAINE ACQUISITION CORP., 65 EAST 55TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Ashley Davis Frushone	director	5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229
Diao H.c. Charles	director	1775 TYSONS BOULEVARD, TYSONS VA 22102
Standard General L.p.	10 percent owner	767 FIFTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153
Yavor Efremov	director	1 ALLIED DRIVE, SUITE 1705, LITTLE ROCK TX 72202
Lawrence Wexler	director, officer: President and CEO	393 CARTER STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840
Standard Diversified Inc.	10 percent owner	767 5TH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153
Robert M. Lavan	officer: SVP and CFO	5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229