What is Turning Point Brands Predictability Rank?
2.5 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Turning Point Brands Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Turning Point Brands Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
5201 Interchange Way, Louisville, KY, USA, 40229
Turning Point Brands Inc operates as manufacturer, marketer, provider of consumer products that include Other Tobacco Products (OTP) in the U.S. The company offers a wide variety across the OTP spectrum including moist snuff tobacco (MST), loose-leaf chewing tobacco, premium cigarette papers, make- your-own (MYO) cigar wraps, cigars, liquid vapor products, and tobacco vaporizer products. It operates in two segments namely Zig-Zag products and Stoker's products segment. The company generates maximum revenue from the Zig-Zag products segment.
Executives
| Baxter Gregory H.a. |
director |
C/O SPECIAL DIVERSIFIED OPPORTUNITIES, 1521 CONCORD PIKE, SUITE 301, WILMINGTON DE 19803 |
| Lawrence Wexler |
director, officer: President and CEO |
393 CARTER STREET, NEW CANAAN CT 06840 |
| Brian Wigginton |
officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer |
5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229 |
| Stephen Usher |
director |
5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229 |
| David Edward Glazek |
director, officer: Executive Chairman |
767 FIFTH AVENUE 12TH FL, NEW YORK NY 10153 |
| Graham Purdy |
officer: President & CEO |
12442 POPLAR WOOD DRIVE, GOSHEN KY 40026 |
| Brittani Cushman |
officer: Sr VP, General Counsel |
5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229 |
| Luis Reformina |
officer: Sr VP, CFO |
5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229 |
| Rohith Reddy |
director |
5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229 |
| Zimmerman Arnold |
director |
925 PARK AVE, 2A, NEW YORK NY 10028 |
| Assia Grazioli-venier |
director |
C/O MARQUEE RAINE ACQUISITION CORP., 65 EAST 55TH STREET, 24TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Ashley Davis Frushone |
director |
5201 INTERCHANGE WAY, LOUISVILLE KY 40229 |
| Diao H.c. Charles |
director |
1775 TYSONS BOULEVARD, TYSONS VA 22102 |
| Standard General L.p. |
10 percent owner |
767 FIFTH AVENUE, 12TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10153 |
| Yavor Efremov |
director |
1 ALLIED DRIVE, SUITE 1705, LITTLE ROCK TX 72202 |
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