Urban Edge Properties (Urban Edge Properties) Predictability Rank

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What is Urban Edge Properties Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Urban Edge Properties Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Urban Edge Properties (Urban Edge Properties) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Urban Edge Properties (NYSE:UE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

888 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY, USA, 10019

Website

https://www.uedge.com

Urban Edge Properties is a real estate investment trust principally focused on the management and development of retail real estate properties in urban communities in the U.S. Having originally been created to hold the majority of Vornado Realty Trust's shopping center businesses, Urban Edge's asset portfolio is mostly composed of shopping centers and malls in terms of total square footage. The company's holdings include necessity and convenience-oriented retailers, such as department stores, grocers, health clubs, and restaurants. Urban Edge's properties are mainly located in the New York City metropolitan region and within the DC to Boston corridor. The company generates nearly all of its revenue through the collection of rent from a large number of tenants.

Executives

Catherine Rice	director	8377 EAST HARTFORD DRIVE, SUITE 100, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85255
Milton Robert C. Iii	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	C/O CIFC CORP., 250 PARK AVENUE, 4TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10177
Jeffrey Mooallem	officer: Chief Operating Officer	3 SERRAMONTE CENTER, DALY CITY CA 94015
Andrea Rosenthal Drazin	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	849 BRADFORD AVENUE, WESTFIELD NJ 07090
Katherine M Sandstrom	director	4600 SOUTH SYRACUSE STREET, SUITE 500, DENVER CO 80237
Mary Baglivo	director	C/O SAATCHI & SAATCHI, 17 HUDSON STREET, NEW YORK NY 10014
Norman K. Jenkins	director	9211 GLADYS FARM WAY, GAITHERSBURG MD 20882
Susan Givens	director	1345 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10105
Herbert Eilberg	officer: Chief Investment Officer	C/O URBAN EDGE PROPERTIES, 888 7TH AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Vita Danielle De	officer: EVP of Development	45 WOOTTON ROAD, ESSEX FELLS NJ 07021
Douglas William Sesler	director	54 NORTHWAY, BRONXVILLE NY 10708
Steven Roth	director
Christopher Weilminster	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O URBAN EDGE PROPERTIES, 888 7TH AVENUE, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
Briggs Donald Ten Eyck	officer: President of Development	78 BLANCHARD RD., BURLINGTON MA 01803
Bernard Schachter	officer: EVP - Asset Management	C/O URBAN EDGE PROPERTIES, 210 ROUTE 4 EAST, PARAMUS NJ 07652