Worthington Enterprises (Worthington Enterprises) Predictability Rank

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What is Worthington Enterprises Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Worthington Enterprises Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Worthington Enterprises (Worthington Enterprises) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Worthington Enterprises Inc (NYSE:WOR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WTH:Germany WTH:Germany

Address

200 Old Wilson Bridge Road, Columbus, OH, USA, 43085

Website

https://www.worthingtonindustries.com

Worthington Enterprises Inc formerly Worthington Industries Inc is a diversified metals manufacturing company, focused on value-added steel processing and manufactured metal products. Its manufactured metal products include pressure cylinders for liquefied petroleum gas, compressed natural gas, oxygen, refrigerant, and other industrial gas storage; cylinders; helium-filled balloon kits; steel and fiberglass tanks and processing equipment primarily for the oil and gas industry; cryogenic pressure vessels for liquefied natural gas and other gas storage applications; light gauge steel framing for commercial and residential construction; and several other products. The firm's operating segments are Steel Processing, Consumer Products, Building Products and Sustainable Energy Solutions.

Executives

Kerrii B Anderson	director	WENDY'S INTERNATIONAL, INC, 4288 WEST DUBLIN-GRANVILLE RD., DUBLIN OH 43017
Horton Ozey K Jr	director	200 OLD WILSON BRIDGE ROAD, COLUMBUS OH 43085
Geoffrey G Gilmore	officer: President, Worthington Steel	200 OLD WILSON BRIDGE ROAD, COLUMBUS OH 43085
Eric M Smolenski	officer: VP-HUMAN RESOURCES	200 OLD WILSON BRIDGE ROAD, COLUMBUS OH 43085
Catherine M Lyttle	officer: Vice President-Communications	200 OLD WILSON BRIDGE ROAD, COLUMBUS OH 43085
Jeffrey R Klingler	officer: President, Worthington Steel	200 OLD WILSON BRIDGE RD, COLUMBUS OH 43085
Mcconnell John P/oh	director, officer: Chairman/Chief Exec Officer	200 OLD WILSON BRIDGE ROAD, COLUMBUS OH 43085
B Andrew Rose	officer: CFO	200 OLD WILSON BRIDGE ROAD, COLUMBUS OH 43085
Mcconnell John H Ii	director	200 OLD WILSON BRIDGE ROAD, COLUMBUS OH 43085
Patrick J. Kennedy	officer: VP-General Counsel & Secy	200 OLD WILSON BRIDGE ROAD, COLUMBUS OH 43085
David P Blom	director	200 OLD WILSON BRIDGE RD, COLUMBUS OH 43085
Sidney A Ribeau	director
Steven R Witt	officer: Controller	WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES, INC, 200 OLD WILSON BRIDGE ROAD, COLUMBUS OH 43085
Steven M Caravati	officer: President-Worthington Cylinder	WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES, INC., 200 OLD WILSON BRIDGE ROAD, COLUMBUS OH 43085
John B Blystone	director	200 OLD WILSON BRIDGE ROAD, N/A, COLUMBUS OH 43085