Zendesk (Zendesk) Predictability Rank

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What is Zendesk Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Zendesk Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Zendesk (Zendesk) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Zendesk Inc (NYSE:ZEN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

989 Market Street, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94103

Website

https://www.zendesk.com

Founded in 2007, Zendesk provides a portfolio of customer engagement software solutions via single applications or the Sunshine suite. Its software unifies customer communication and data across various channels and business units, and simplifies customer service and engagement across self service, phone, chat, messaging, and email.

Executives

Norman Gennaro	officer: SVP, Worldwide Sales	1019 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Jeffrey J Titterton	officer: SVP, Marketing	PLANETOUT INC., P.O. BOX 500, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Adrian Mcdermott	officer: SVP of Product Development	C/O ZENDESK, INC., 989 MARKET STREET, SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Mikkel Svane	director, officer: Chairman and CEO	C/O ZENDESK, INC., 989 MARKET STREET, SUITE 300, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Pat Copeland	officer: Chief Engineering Officer	ZENDESK, INC., 989 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Ronald J Pasek	director	101 INNOVATION DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95134
John Geschke	officer: SVP, GC and Secretary	C/O ZULILY, INC., 2601 ELLIOTT AVENUE, SUITE 200, SEATTLE WA 98101
Andrea Nieto	officer: Chief People Officer	ZENDESK, INC., 989 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Soren Abildgaard	officer: EVP of Engineering	ZENDESK, INC., 989 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Archana Agrawal	director	C/O MONGODB, INC., 1633 BROADWAY, 38TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019
L Michelle Wilson	director	PO BOX 81226, SEATTLE WA 98108-1226
Shelagh Glaser	officer: Chief Financial Officer	ZENDESK, INC., 989 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Inamarie Johnson	officer: Chief People Officer	1019 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Alex Constantinople	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	133 7TH AVE, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94118
Marc Cabi	officer: Deputy Chief Financial Officer	ZENDESK, INC., 989 MARKET STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103