Zai Lab (Zai Lab) Predictability Rank

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What is Zai Lab Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Zai Lab Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Zai Lab (Zai Lab) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Zai Lab Ltd (NAS:ZLAB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

ZLAB:Mexico 09688:Hong Kong 1ZLB:Germany 1ZLB:Germany 1ZL:Germany 1ZL:Germany

Address

4560 Jinke Road, Jinchuang Plaza, Building 1, 4th Floor, Pudong, Shanghai, CHN, 201210

Website

https://www.zailaboratory.com

Zai Lab Ltd is a biopharmaceutical company focusing on discovering or licensing, developing, and commercializing proprietary therapeutics that address areas of unmet medical need including in the fields of oncology, autoimmune and infectious diseases. The pipeline of proprietary drug candidates of the company includes ZL-2306 for treatment across multiple solid tumor types including ovarian and certain types of breast and lung cancers; ZL-2401 which is an antibiotic in a new class of tetracycline derivatives; and ZL-2301 is an oral, small molecule which targets HCC.

Executives

Harald Reinhart	officer: Chief Medical Officer	4560 JINKE ROAD, BLDG. 1, FOURTH FLOOR, PUDONG, SHANGHAI F4 201210
Edmondson Frazor Titus Iii	officer: Chief Legal Officer	4560 JINKE ROAD, BLDG. 1, FOURTH FLOOR, PUDONG, SHANGHAI F4 201210
Ying Du	director, officer: Chairwoman & CEO	C/O ZAID LAB LIMITED, 4560 JINKE ROAD, BLDG. 1, 4F, PUDONG, SHANGHAI F4 201210
Rafael Amado	officer: See Remarks	210 EAST GRAND AVE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Joshua L Smiley	officer: Chief Operating Officer	LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Yajing Chen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	314 MAIN STREET, 4TH FLOOR, SUITE 100, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Michel Vounatsos	director	BIOGEN INC., 225 BINNEY ST., CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Peter Wirth	director	37 HANCOCK STREET, BOSTON MA 02114
John D Diekman	director	C/O 5 AM VENTURES, 501 2ND STREET, SUITE 350, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
William Lis	director	PORTOLA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 270 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Richard Gaynor	director	C/O NEON THERAPEUTICS, 40 ERIE STREET, SUITE 110, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Tao Fu	director, officer: President & COO	3175 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304
Scott W Morrison	director	C/O GLOBAL BLOOD THERAPEUTICS, INC., 400 EAST JAMIE COURT SUITE 101, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Cho William Ki Chul	officer: Chief Financial Officer	4560 JINKE ROAD, BLDG. 1, FOURTH FLOOR, PUDONG, SHANGHAI F4 201210
Kai-xian Chen	director	4560 JINKE ROAD, BLDG. 1, FOURTH FLOOR, PUDONG, SHANGHAI F4 201210