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Aristocrat LeisureASX:ALL +0.16%94 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 21.20% as of Sep. 2025, which is 0% below its 10-year median of 21.24. GuruFocus rates ASX:ALL with a GF Score™ of 94/100 and a GF Value™ of A$52.98 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 568 Travel & Leisure companies, Aristocrat Leisure ranks better than 71.83% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Aristocrat Leisure's forward rate of return for was 21.20%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Aristocrat Leisure's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
ASX:ALL'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.48 Med: 21.24 Max: 24.29
Current: 21.42
During the past 13 years, Aristocrat Leisure's highest Forward Rate of Return was 24.29. The lowest was 0.48. And the median was 21.24.
ASX:ALL's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 71.83% of 568
companies
in the Travel & Leisure industry
Industry Median: 10.27
vs ASX:ALL: 21.42
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Aristocrat Leisure (ASX:ALL) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Aristocrat Leisure Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Aristocrat Leisure Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Aristocrat Leisure's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Aristocrat Leisure Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
ASX:ALL vs FLUT, DKNG, SGHC: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Gambling subindustry, Aristocrat Leisure's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Aristocrat Leisure Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Travel & Leisure Industry
For the Travel & Leisure industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Aristocrat Leisure's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Aristocrat Leisure's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Aristocrat Leisure Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 21.20% mean?
Aristocrat Leisure (ASX:ALL) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 21.20% as of Sep. 2025. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Aristocrat Leisure and its competitors. This is near median its historical median of 21.24. Over the past decade, Aristocrat Leisure's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 0.48 to 24.29. According to the industry distribution chart, Aristocrat Leisure ranks #160 out of 568 companies in the Travel & Leisure industry, placing it in the top 28.2%.
Is Aristocrat Leisure's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Aristocrat Leisure's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 21.20% is near median its 10-year median of 21.24. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.48 to a high of 24.29. The Travel & Leisure industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.27. Aristocrat Leisure's value of 21.20% is 106.4% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Aristocrat Leisure ranks #160 out of 568 companies in the Travel & Leisure industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Aristocrat Leisure has a GF Score™ of 94/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Aristocrat Leisure's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to FLUT and DKNG?
According to the Travel & Leisure industry distribution chart, Aristocrat Leisure ranks #160 out of 568 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This puts Aristocrat Leisure in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.27. Aristocrat Leisure's value of 21.20% is 106.4% above this benchmark. Historically, Aristocrat Leisure's own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 0.48 to 24.29 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 21.24 vs. the industry median of 10.27, Aristocrat Leisure has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Travel & Leisure company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Travel & Leisure companies is 10.27, based on 568 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Aristocrat Leisure's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 21.20% is 106.4% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Aristocrat Leisure and its competitors. For the Travel & Leisure industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 10.27 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Aristocrat Leisure's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 21.20%, which is near median its own 10-year median of 21.24. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Aristocrat Leisure stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Aristocrat Leisure (ASX:ALL) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is A$52.98, compared to a current price of A$64.50 — trading 21.7% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 21.20%, which is near median its 10-year median of 21.24 and 106.4% above the Travel & Leisure industry median of 10.27. Aristocrat Leisure's overall GF Score™ is 94/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Aristocrat Leisure (ASX:ALL), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 21.20% as of Sep. 2025. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Aristocrat Leisure (ASX:ALL) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Aristocrat Leisure stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of A$64.50 is trading 21.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of A$52.98.
GuruFocus considers Aristocrat Leisure to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for ASX:ALL:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 21.20% (near median its 10-year median of 21.24)
GF Value™: A$52.98 vs. price of A$64.50 (21.7% above fair value)
Industry Position: 106.4% above the Travel & Leisure median (#160 of 568)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:ALL stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Aristocrat Leisure is an electronic gaming machine manufacturer that sells machines to pubs, clubs, and casinos. The firm is licensed in all Australian states and territories, North American jurisdictions, and essentially every major country. Aristocrat is one of the top three largest players in the space along with International Game Technology and Light & Wonder. The company also develops and distributes mobile games, principally in the social casino niche. The more nascent iGaming business sits between these two businesses, providing digital content and capabilities to real-money gaming providers.
94GF Score
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