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CogstateASX:CGS -0.79%78 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 22.10% as of Jun. 2025, which is 2% below its 10-year median of 22.49. GuruFocus rates ASX:CGS with a GF Score™ of 78/100 and a GF Value™ of A$2.09 (Modestly Overvalued). Among 341 Healthcare Providers & Services companies, Cogstate ranks better than 76.83% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Cogstate's forward rate of return for was 22.10%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Cogstate's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
ASX:CGS'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 21.45 Med: 22.49 Max: 23.43
Current: 21.45
During the past 13 years, Cogstate's highest Forward Rate of Return was 23.43. The lowest was 21.45. And the median was 22.49.
ASX:CGS's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 76.83% of 341
companies
in the Healthcare Providers & Services industry
Industry Median: 12.12
vs ASX:CGS: 21.45
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Cogstate (ASX:CGS) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Cogstate Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Cogstate Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Cogstate's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Cogstate Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
ASX:CGS vs VEEV, BTSG, HQY: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Health Information Services subindustry, Cogstate's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Cogstate Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Healthcare Providers & Services Industry
For the Healthcare Providers & Services industry and Healthcare sector, Cogstate's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Cogstate's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Cogstate Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 22.10% mean?
Cogstate (ASX:CGS) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 22.10% as of Jun. 2025. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Cogstate and its competitors. This is near median its historical median of 22.49. Over the past decade, Cogstate's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 21.45 to 23.43. According to the industry distribution chart, Cogstate ranks #79 out of 341 companies in the Healthcare Providers & Services industry, placing it in the top 23.2%.
Is Cogstate's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Cogstate's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 22.10% is near median its 10-year median of 22.49. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 21.45 to a high of 23.43. The Healthcare Providers & Services industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.12. Cogstate's value of 22.10% is 82.3% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Cogstate ranks #79 out of 341 companies in the Healthcare Providers & Services industry, which is in the top quartile — a strong position relative to peers. Overall, Cogstate has a GF Score™ of 78/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Cogstate's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to VEEV and BTSG?
According to the Healthcare Providers & Services industry distribution chart, Cogstate ranks #79 out of 341 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Cogstate in the top 23% of its industry — outperforming the majority of peers. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.12. Cogstate's value of 22.10% is 82.3% above this benchmark. Historically, Cogstate's own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 21.45 to 23.43 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 22.49 vs. the industry median of 12.12, Cogstate has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Healthcare Providers & Services company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Healthcare Providers & Services companies is 12.12, based on 341 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Cogstate's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 22.10% is 82.3% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Cogstate and its competitors. For the Healthcare Providers & Services industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.12 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Cogstate's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 22.10%, which is near median its own 10-year median of 22.49. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Cogstate stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Cogstate (ASX:CGS) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is A$2.09, compared to a current price of A$2.50 — trading 19.6% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 22.10%, which is near median its 10-year median of 22.49 and 82.3% above the Healthcare Providers & Services industry median of 12.12. Cogstate's overall GF Score™ is 78/100. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Cogstate (ASX:CGS), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 22.10% as of Jun. 2025. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Cogstate (ASX:CGS) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Cogstate stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of A$2.50 is trading 19.6% above its estimated GF Value™ of A$2.09.
GuruFocus considers Cogstate to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for ASX:CGS:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 22.10% (near median its 10-year median of 22.49)
GF Value™: A$2.09 vs. price of A$2.50 (19.6% above fair value)
Industry Position: 82.3% above the Healthcare Providers & Services median (#79 of 341)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:CGS stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Cogstate Ltd is a cognitive science company. The principal activity of the group is the Creation, validation, and commercialisation of digital brain health assessments; and the Design and provision of quality assurance services in clinical trials, focused on the administration, scoring, and recording of conventional brain health assessments and reporting. Its operating segment includes Clinical Trials, Healthcare, and Administration. The company generates maximum revenue from the Clinical Trials segment. In the clinical trials segment, technology and services are sold to pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. The company derives revenue from the sale of licensed software and cognitive testing services.
78GF Score
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