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China Mengniu Dairy CoCIADF -0.98%77 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 1.91% as of Dec. 2025, which is 86% below its 10-year median of 13.52. GuruFocus rates CIADF with a GF Score™ of 77/100 and a GF Value™ of $1.88 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,403 Consumer Packaged Goods companies, China Mengniu Dairy Co ranks worse than 68.57% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. China Mengniu Dairy Co's forward rate of return for was 1.91%.
The historical rank and industry rank for China Mengniu Dairy Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
CIADF'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -8.52 Med: 13.52 Max: 22.64
Current: 0.56
During the past 13 years, China Mengniu Dairy Co's highest Forward Rate of Return was 22.64. The lowest was -8.52. And the median was 13.52.
CIADF's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 68.57% of 1403
companies
in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry
Industry Median: 8.31
vs CIADF: 0.56
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
China Mengniu Dairy Co (OTCPK:CIADF) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
China Mengniu Dairy Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
China Mengniu Dairy Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for China Mengniu Dairy Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
China Mengniu Dairy Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
CIADF vs KHC, GIS: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Packaged Foods subindustry, China Mengniu Dairy Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
China Mengniu Dairy Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Consumer Packaged Goods Industry
For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry and Consumer Defensive sector, China Mengniu Dairy Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where China Mengniu Dairy Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
China Mengniu Dairy Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 1.91% mean?
China Mengniu Dairy Co (CIADF) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 1.91% as of Dec. 2025. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on China Mengniu Dairy Co and its competitors. This is 86% below median its historical median of 13.52. According to the industry distribution chart, China Mengniu Dairy Co ranks #962 out of 1403 companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry, placing it in the top 68.6%.
Is China Mengniu Dairy Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
China Mengniu Dairy Co's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 1.91% is 86% below median its 10-year median of 13.52. The Consumer Packaged Goods industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.31. China Mengniu Dairy Co's value of 1.91% is 77% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, China Mengniu Dairy Co ranks #962 out of 1403 companies in the Consumer Packaged Goods industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, China Mengniu Dairy Co has a GF Score™ of 77/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does China Mengniu Dairy Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to KHC and GIS?
According to the Consumer Packaged Goods industry distribution chart, China Mengniu Dairy Co ranks #962 out of 1403 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places China Mengniu Dairy Co in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.31. China Mengniu Dairy Co's value of 1.91% is 77% below this benchmark. While the company's 10-year median is 13.52 vs. the industry median of 8.31, China Mengniu Dairy Co has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Consumer Packaged Goods company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Consumer Packaged Goods companies is 8.31, based on 1,403 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. China Mengniu Dairy Co's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 1.91% is 77% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on China Mengniu Dairy Co and its competitors. For the Consumer Packaged Goods industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 8.31 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. China Mengniu Dairy Co's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 1.91%, which is 86% below median its own 10-year median of 13.52. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is China Mengniu Dairy Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Mengniu Dairy Co (CIADF) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $1.88, compared to a current price of $2.02 — trading 7.4% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 1.91%, which is 86% below median its 10-year median of 13.52 and 77% below the Consumer Packaged Goods industry median of 8.31. China Mengniu Dairy Co's overall GF Score™ is 77/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For China Mengniu Dairy Co (CIADF), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 1.91% as of Dec. 2025. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is China Mengniu Dairy Co (CIADF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Mengniu Dairy Co stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $2.02 is trading 7.4% above its estimated GF Value™ of $1.88.
GuruFocus considers China Mengniu Dairy Co to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for CIADF:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 1.91% (86% below median its 10-year median of 13.52)
GF Value™: $1.88 vs. price of $2.02 (7.4% above fair value)
Industry Position: 77% below the Consumer Packaged Goods median (#962 of 1403)
No single metric tells the full story. See the CIADF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
China Mengniu Dairy is China's second-largest dairy producer by market share. The company produces a wide range of dairy products, including liquid milk, yogurt, ice cream, infant milk formula, and cheese. Liquid milk, composed of milk, milk beverages, and yogurt, contributed roughly 80% of Mengniu's revenue in 2024. Flagship lineups include Deluxe, Mengniu Pure Milk, Just Yoghurt, and Yoyi C. Mengniu also owns two infant formula brands, Yashili and Bellamy, as well as Milkground, a cheese brand.
77GF Score
Get the complete analysis for CIADF
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
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