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Friedman IndustriesFRD -0.88%70 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -1.27% as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus rates FRD with a GF Score™ of 70/100 and a GF Value™ of $26.80 (Significantly Overvalued). The stock has 8 warning signs investors should review. Among 494 Steel companies, Friedman Industries ranks worse than 56.48% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Friedman Industries's forward rate of return for was -1.27%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Friedman Industries's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
FRD'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -4.05 Med: -2.71 Max: -1.32
Current: -1.74
During the past 13 years, Friedman Industries's highest Forward Rate of Return was -1.32. The lowest was -4.05. And the median was -2.71.
FRD's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 56.48% of 494
companies
in the Steel industry
Industry Median: 2.01
vs FRD: -1.74
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Friedman Industries (NAS:FRD) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Friedman Industries Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Friedman Industries Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Friedman Industries's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Friedman Industries Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
FRD vs MSB, LUD, HLP: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Steel subindustry, Friedman Industries's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Friedman Industries Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Steel Industry
For the Steel industry and Basic Materials sector, Friedman Industries's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Friedman Industries's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Friedman Industries Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of -1.27% mean?
Friedman Industries (FRD) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of -1.27% as of Jun. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Friedman Industries and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, Friedman Industries ranks #279 out of 494 companies in the Steel industry, placing it in the top 56.5%.
Is Friedman Industries' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Friedman Industries' current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -1.27%. Based on the distribution chart, Friedman Industries ranks #279 out of 494 companies in the Steel industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Friedman Industries has a GF Score™ of 70/100 and is considered Significantly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Friedman Industries' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to MSB and LUD?
According to the Steel industry distribution chart, Friedman Industries ranks #279 out of 494 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places Friedman Industries in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 2.01. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Steel company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Steel companies is 2.01, based on 494 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Friedman Industries and its competitors. For the Steel industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 2.01 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Friedman Industries's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -1.27%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Friedman Industries stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Friedman Industries (FRD) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $26.80, compared to a current price of $45.20 — trading 68.7% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -1.27%. Friedman Industries' overall GF Score™ is 70/100 with 8 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Friedman Industries (FRD), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -1.27% as of Jun. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Friedman Industries (FRD) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Friedman Industries stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $45.20 is trading 68.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of $26.80.
GuruFocus considers Friedman Industries to be Significantly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for FRD:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: -1.27%
GF Value™: $26.80 vs. price of $45.20 (68.7% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the FRD stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Friedman Industries Inc is a manufacturer and processor of metals and operates in two reportable segments: flat-roll products and tubular products. The flat-roll product segment consists of flat-roll processing facilities located in Hickman, Arkansas; Decatur, Alabama; Miami, Florida; East Chicago, Indiana; Granite City, Illinois and Sinton, Texas and a flat-roll distribution facility located in Orlando, Florida. The tubular product segment consists of the Company's Texas Tubular Products division (TTP) located in Lone Star, Texas. TTP operates two electric resistance welded pipe mills with a combined outside diameter (OD). Its products are flat-roll products and tubular products.
70GF Score
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