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Ollie's Bargain Outlet HoldingsOLLI -5.85%83 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 19.56% as of Jul. 2026, which is 65% above its 10-year median of 11.85. GuruFocus rates OLLI with a GF Score™ of 83/100 and a GF Value™ of $123.10 (Possible Value Trap). The stock has 2 warning signs investors should review. Among 221 Retail - Defensive companies, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings ranks better than 67.87% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings's forward rate of return for was 19.56%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
OLLI'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 3.49 Med: 11.85 Max: 23.43
Current: 19.45
During the past 13 years, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings's highest Forward Rate of Return was 23.43. The lowest was 3.49. And the median was 11.85.
OLLI's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 67.87% of 221
companies
in the Retail - Defensive industry
Industry Median: 13.92
vs OLLI: 19.45
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
OLLI vs PSMT, TBBB, BJ: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Discount Stores subindustry, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Retail - Defensive Industry
For the Retail - Defensive industry and Consumer Defensive sector, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 19.56% mean?
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 19.56% as of Jul. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings and its competitors. This is 65% above median its historical median of 11.85. Over the past decade, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 3.49 to 23.43. According to the industry distribution chart, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings ranks #71 out of 221 companies in the Retail - Defensive industry, placing it in the top 32.1%.
Is Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 19.56% is 65% above median its 10-year median of 11.85. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 3.49 to a high of 23.43. The Retail - Defensive industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 13.92. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' value of 19.56% is 40.5% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings ranks #71 out of 221 companies in the Retail - Defensive industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings has a GF Score™ of 83/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to PSMT and TBBB?
According to the Retail - Defensive industry distribution chart, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings ranks #71 out of 221 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This puts Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 13.92. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' value of 19.56% is 40.5% above this benchmark. Historically, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 3.49 to 23.43 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 11.85 vs. the industry median of 13.92, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Retail - Defensive company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Retail - Defensive companies is 13.92, based on 221 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 19.56% is 40.5% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings and its competitors. For the Retail - Defensive industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 13.92 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 19.56%, which is 65% above median its own 10-year median of 11.85. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is $123.10, compared to a current price of $72.38 — trading 41.2% below its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 19.56%, which is 65% above median its 10-year median of 11.85 and 40.5% above the Retail - Defensive industry median of 13.92. Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 83/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 19.56% as of Jul. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings (OLLI) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $72.38 is trading 41.2% below its estimated GF Value™ of $123.10.
GuruFocus considers Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings to be Possible Value Trap.
Key valuation signals for OLLI:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 19.56% (65% above median its 10-year median of 11.85)
GF Value™: $123.10 vs. price of $72.38 (41.2% below fair value)
Industry Position: 40.5% above the Retail - Defensive median (#71 of 221)
No single metric tells the full story. See the OLLI stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc is a retailer of closeout merchandise and excess inventory. The company sells name-brand household items that consumers use every day at prices heavily discounted compared with traditional retailers. It offers customers a broad selection of brand-name products, including housewares, bed and bath, food, floor coverings, health and beauty aids, books and stationery, toys, and electronics. The company operates stores across the Eastern half of the United States. Its differentiated go-to-market plan is characterized by a fun, engaging treasure-hunt shopping experience, a compelling customer value proposition, and witty, humorous in-store signage and advertising campaigns.
83GF Score
Get the complete analysis for OLLI
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