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South32SHTLF 71 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -1.37% as of Jun. 2025. GuruFocus rates SHTLF with a GF Score™ of 71/100 and a GF Value™ of $2.52 (Modestly Overvalued). The stock has 10 warning signs investors should review. Among 444 Metals & Mining companies, South32 ranks worse than 70.5% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. South32's forward rate of return for was -1.37%.
The historical rank and industry rank for South32's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
SHTLF'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -11.23 Med: -0.03 Max: 17.07
Current: -4.07
During the past 13 years, South32's highest Forward Rate of Return was 17.07. The lowest was -11.23. And the median was -0.03.
SHTLF's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked worse than 70.5% of 444
companies
in the Metals & Mining industry
Industry Median: 9.21
vs SHTLF: -4.07
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
South32 (OTCPK:SHTLF) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
South32 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
South32 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for South32's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
South32 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Competitor Comparison
For the Other Industrial Metals & Mining subindustry, South32's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
South32 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Metals & Mining Industry
For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, South32's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where South32's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
South32 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of -1.37% mean?
South32 (SHTLF) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of -1.37% as of Jun. 2025. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on South32 and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, South32 ranks #313 out of 444 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, placing it in the top 70.5%.
Is South32's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
South32's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -1.37%. Based on the distribution chart, South32 ranks #313 out of 444 companies in the Metals & Mining industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, South32 has a GF Score™ of 71/100 and is considered Modestly Overvalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does South32's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to competitors?
According to the Metals & Mining industry distribution chart, South32 ranks #313 out of 444 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This places South32 in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.21. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Metals & Mining company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Metals & Mining companies is 9.21, based on 444 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on South32 and its competitors. For the Metals & Mining industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 9.21 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. South32's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -1.37%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is South32 stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, South32 (SHTLF) is currently considered Modestly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $2.52, compared to a current price of $3.00 — trading 19% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -1.37%. South32's overall GF Score™ is 71/100 with 10 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For South32 (SHTLF), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is -1.37% as of Jun. 2025. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is South32 (SHTLF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, South32 stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $3.00 is trading 19% above its estimated GF Value™ of $2.52.
GuruFocus considers South32 to be Modestly Overvalued.
Key valuation signals for SHTLF:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: -1.37%
GF Value™: $2.52 vs. price of $3.00 (19% above fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the SHTLF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
South32 was born of the demerger of noncore assets from BHP in 2015. Its major operations include alumina businesses in Australia and Brazil, aluminum in Brazil, South Africa, and Mozambique, and manganese businesses in Australia and South Africa. It sold New South Wales metallurgical coal in August 2024 and the Cerro Matoso nickel mine in Colombia in December 2025. It also owns the Cannington silver/lead/zinc mine in Queensland. Its Australian manganese operations deliver high returns, but have a relatively short reserve life. The company acquired Arizona Mining, which brings with it the high-grade and likely low-cost Taylor project in the US, and also entered the copper business in 2022 via the purchase of a 45% stake in the Sierra Gorda mine in Chile.
71GF Score
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