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Simpson Manufacturing CoSSD +2.51%97 Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.52% as of Mar. 2026, which is 33% below its 10-year median of 18.55. GuruFocus rates SSD with a GF Score™ of 97/100 and a GF Value™ of $185.67 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 239 Forest Products companies, Simpson Manufacturing Co ranks better than 69.04% on this metric.
Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. Simpson Manufacturing Co's forward rate of return for was 12.52%.
The historical rank and industry rank for Simpson Manufacturing Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % or its related term are showing as below:
SSD'
s Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 11.92 Med: 18.55 Max: 24.84
Current: 12.15
During the past 13 years, Simpson Manufacturing Co's highest Forward Rate of Return was 24.84. The lowest was 11.92. And the median was 18.55.
SSD's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is ranked better than 69.04% of 239
companies
in the Forest Products industry
Industry Median: 2.93
vs SSD: 12.15
Unlike the Earnings Yield %, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
Simpson Manufacturing Co (NYSE:SSD) Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Explanation
Unlike the Earnings Yield, the Forward Rate of Return uses the normalized Free Cash Flow of the past five years, and considers growth. The forward rate of return can be thought of as the return that investors buying the stock today can expect from it in the future.
For the growth part of the Forward Rate of Return calculation, GuruFocus uses the 5-year average growth rate of EBITDA per share as the growth rate, and the growth rate is always capped at 20%. For the Free Cash Flow we use per share data averaged over five years. The reason we use five years is to make it comparable to the growth rate.
Be Aware
In the Forward Rate of Return calculation, the growth rate is added directly to today's free cash flow yield. Therefore the calculation is reliable only if the company can grow at the same rate in the future as it did in the past. Investors should pay close attention to this when researching growth stocks. A more accurate measurement for return is Return on Capital.
Simpson Manufacturing Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Related Terms
Simpson Manufacturing Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Simpson Manufacturing Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Simpson Manufacturing Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Chart
SSD vs UFPI, BCC, JCTC: Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Comparison
For the Lumber & Wood Production subindustry, Simpson Manufacturing Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %, along with its competitors' market caps and Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Simpson Manufacturing Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % vs Forest Products Industry
For the Forest Products industry and Basic Materials sector, Simpson Manufacturing Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Simpson Manufacturing Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % falls into.
Simpson Manufacturing Co Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % Calculation
Forward Rate of Return is a concept that Don Yacktman uses in his investment approach. Yacktman explained the forward rate of return concept in detail in his interview with GuruFocus. Yacktman defines forward rate of return as the normalized free cash flow yield plus real growth plus inflation. He said in the interview (March 2012, when the S&P 500 was at about 1400):
If the business is stable, this calculation is fairly straightforward. For instance, on the S&P 500 we would normalize earnings. We would then calculate what percentage of those earnings are not reinvested in the underlying businesses and are therefore free. Historically, for the S&P 500, this has been just under 50% of earnings. Currently, we expect the S&P to earn about 70 on a normalized basis, a number which is far below reported earnings due to our adjusting for record high profit margins. $70 X ½ / 1400 gives you a normalized free cash flow yield of approximately 2.5%.
The historical real growth rate of the S&P 500 (companies) is about 1.5%. Assuming an inflation rate of 2.5%, the forward rate of return on an investment in the S&P 500 is about 6.5% today (2.5% free cash flow yield plus 1.5% real growth plus 2.5% inflation).
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
What does a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 12.52% mean?
Simpson Manufacturing Co (SSD) has a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 12.52% as of Mar. 2026. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Simpson Manufacturing Co and its competitors. This is 33% below median its historical median of 18.55. Over the past decade, Simpson Manufacturing Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 11.92 to 24.84. According to the industry distribution chart, Simpson Manufacturing Co ranks #74 out of 239 companies in the Forest Products industry, placing it in the top 31%.
Is Simpson Manufacturing Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % too high?
Simpson Manufacturing Co's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 12.52% is 33% below median its 10-year median of 18.55. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 11.92 to a high of 24.84. The Forest Products industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 2.93. Simpson Manufacturing Co's value of 12.52% is 327.3% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Simpson Manufacturing Co ranks #74 out of 239 companies in the Forest Products industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Simpson Manufacturing Co has a GF Score™ of 97/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Simpson Manufacturing Co's Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % compare to UFPI and BCC?
According to the Forest Products industry distribution chart, Simpson Manufacturing Co ranks #74 out of 239 companies for Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %. This puts Simpson Manufacturing Co in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 2.93. Simpson Manufacturing Co's value of 12.52% is 327.3% above this benchmark. Historically, Simpson Manufacturing Co's own Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % has ranged from 11.92 to 24.84 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 18.55 vs. the industry median of 2.93, Simpson Manufacturing Co has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % for a Forest Products company?
The median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % among Forest Products companies is 2.93, based on 239 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Simpson Manufacturing Co's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % of 12.52% is 327.3% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % mean?
A high Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Yacktman's forward rate of return equals the sum of normalized free-cash-flow yield plus earnings growth. View historical data on Simpson Manufacturing Co and its competitors. For the Forest Products industry, the median Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 2.93 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Simpson Manufacturing Co's current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.52%, which is 33% below median its own 10-year median of 18.55. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Simpson Manufacturing Co stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Simpson Manufacturing Co (SSD) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is $185.67, compared to a current price of $198.29 — trading 6.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.52%, which is 33% below median its 10-year median of 18.55 and 327.3% above the Forest Products industry median of 2.93. Simpson Manufacturing Co's overall GF Score™ is 97/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % calculated?
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Simpson Manufacturing Co (SSD), the current Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) % is 12.52% as of Mar. 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Simpson Manufacturing Co (SSD) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Simpson Manufacturing Co stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $198.29 is trading 6.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of $185.67.
GuruFocus considers Simpson Manufacturing Co to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for SSD:
Forward Rate of Return (Yacktman) %: 12.52% (33% below median its 10-year median of 18.55)
GF Value™: $185.67 vs. price of $198.29 (6.8% above fair value)
Industry Position: 327.3% above the Forest Products median (#74 of 239)
No single metric tells the full story. See the SSD stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Simpson Manufacturing Co Inc designs, manufactures, and markets systems and products to make buildings and structures safe and secure. It produces wood construction products, including connectors, truss plates, fastening systems, fasteners, and shearwalls, as well as concrete construction products such as adhesives, specialty chemicals, mechanical anchors, powder actuated tools, and fiber reinforcing materials. The company serves residential, industrial, commercial, and infrastructure construction, remodeling, and do-it-yourself markets, operating exclusively in the building products industry. It has three regional segments: North America, Europe, and Asia/Pacific. The majority of its revenue comes from wood products.
97GF Score
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