Chipotle Mexican Grill (TSX:CMGS) Risk Assessment

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

TSX:CMGS Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc TSX:CMGS
70 GF Score
Price C$12.83
GF Value C$23.33
Valuation Significantly Undervalued
! 1 Warning Sign
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What is Chipotle Mexican Grill Risk Assessment?

Risk Assessment represents the investment risk of a stock derived from our exclusive method. It suggests how risky the investment opportunity is based on the valuation and the fundamental performance of the stock. It is derived from following key aspects:

1. GuruFocus internally developed valuations of the stock, such as GF valuation.
2. Quality Rank, a business quality indicator developed by GuruFocus.
3. Fundamental performance: Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score, Beneish M-Score, etc.
4. Growth opportunities: 5-year revenue growth rate, 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate, etc.

Value investors are always willing to find undervalued stocks. However, not all the undervalued stocks are good deals, we should also be careful of how risky the investment opportunity is. We believe that if the company's financial strength and profitability are strong, and the stock price is within a reasonable range of the GF valuation, or stock has a high return with its price being undervalued, then it might be a good investment opportunity with low risk.

Based on those aspects listed above, GuruFocus believes the risk assessment of Chipotle Mexican Grill is: Low Risk: Strong fundamentals, worth long-term holding.

Chipotle Mexican Grill  (TSX:CMGS) Risk Assessment Explanation

Based on the four aspects listed above, GuruFocus provides the following 7 evaluations:

All-in-One Screener Examples (1)
Low Risk: Strong fundamentals, worth long-term holding
Moderate Risk: Sensitive, better choose undervalued stock
High Risk: High uncertainty with risk-return tradeoff
High Risk: Good fundamentals, beware of shrinking business
High Risk: Sensitive to economic or industry trends
High Risk: High uncertainty
No Data: Cannot be evaluated

(1) These are some simple examples. You can access our Risk Assessment filter under All-in-One Screener’s Fundamental tab and set your own criteria.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Risk Assessment Related Terms

TSX:CMGS vs YUM, DRI, YUMC: Risk Assessment Comparison

For the Restaurants subindustry, Chipotle Mexican Grill's Risk Assessment, along with its competitors' market caps and Risk Assessment data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Risk Assessment vs Restaurants Industry

For the Restaurants industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Chipotle Mexican Grill's Risk Assessment distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Chipotle Mexican Grill's Risk Assessment falls into.


TSX:CMGS
70GF Score
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc TSX:CMGS
Risk Assessment is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Is Chipotle Mexican Grill (TSX:CMGS) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Chipotle Mexican Grill stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of C$12.83 is trading 45% below its estimated GF Value™ of C$23.33. GuruFocus considers Chipotle Mexican Grill to be Significantly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for TSX:CMGS:

  • Risk Assessment:
  • GF Value™: C$23.33 vs. price of C$12.83 (45% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 70/100 with 1 warning sign

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSX:CMGS stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Business Description

Address 610 Newport Center Drive, Suite 1100, Newport Beach, CA, USA, 92660
Chipotle is a leading fast-casual, Mexican-inspired restaurant chain, generating $11.9 billion in sales across 3,983 company-operated US locations, 104 international units primarily in Canada and Europe, and 14 licensed stores largely operated in the Middle East at the end of 2025. The firm's revenue is primarily driven by food and beverage sales at its company-owned restaurants, supplemented by delivery fees generated through its first-party digital channels. Chipotle emphasizes ingredients with no artificial flavors and utilizes an efficient, assembly line service model to serve mainly customizable burritos, bowls, salads, quesadillas, and tacos.
70GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSX:CMGS

Risk Assessment is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

C$12.83
Price
C$23.33
GF Value