Obsidian Energy (TSX:OBE) Risk Assessment

Author: Vera Yuan Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Vera Yuan
Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Reviewed by: Charlie Tian Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Charlie Tian
Founder & CEO of GuruFocus
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

TSX:OBE Obsidian Energy Ltd TSX:OBE
55 GF Score
Price C$13.87
GF Value C$8.42
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 5 Warning Signs
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What is Obsidian Energy Risk Assessment?

Risk Assessment represents the investment risk of a stock derived from our exclusive method. It suggests how risky the investment opportunity is based on the valuation and the fundamental performance of the stock. It is derived from following key aspects:

1. GuruFocus internally developed valuations of the stock, such as GF valuation.
2. Quality Rank, a business quality indicator developed by GuruFocus.
3. Fundamental performance: Piotroski F-Score, Altman Z-Score, Beneish M-Score, etc.
4. Growth opportunities: 5-year revenue growth rate, 5-Year EPS without NRI Growth Rate, etc.

Value investors are always willing to find undervalued stocks. However, not all the undervalued stocks are good deals, we should also be careful of how risky the investment opportunity is. We believe that if the company's financial strength and profitability are strong, and the stock price is within a reasonable range of the GF valuation, or stock has a high return with its price being undervalued, then it might be a good investment opportunity with low risk.

Based on those aspects listed above, GuruFocus believes the risk assessment of Obsidian Energy is: High Risk: High uncertainty with risk-return tradeoff.

Obsidian Energy  (TSX:OBE) Risk Assessment Explanation

Based on the four aspects listed above, GuruFocus provides the following 7 evaluations:

All-in-One Screener Examples (1)
Low Risk: Strong fundamentals, worth long-term holding
Moderate Risk: Sensitive, better choose undervalued stock
High Risk: High uncertainty with risk-return tradeoff
High Risk: Good fundamentals, beware of shrinking business
High Risk: Sensitive to economic or industry trends
High Risk: High uncertainty
No Data: Cannot be evaluated

(1) These are some simple examples. You can access our Risk Assessment filter under All-in-One Screener’s Fundamental tab and set your own criteria.

Obsidian Energy Risk Assessment Related Terms

TSX:OBE vs COP, EOG, FANG: Risk Assessment Comparison

For the Oil & Gas E&P subindustry, Obsidian Energy's Risk Assessment, along with its competitors' market caps and Risk Assessment data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Obsidian Energy Risk Assessment vs Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Obsidian Energy's Risk Assessment distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Obsidian Energy's Risk Assessment falls into.


TSX:OBE
55GF Score
Obsidian Energy Ltd TSX:OBE
Risk Assessment is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
View Full Analysis

Is Obsidian Energy (TSX:OBE) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Obsidian Energy stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of C$13.87 is trading 64.7% above its estimated GF Value™ of C$8.42. GuruFocus considers Obsidian Energy to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for TSX:OBE:

  • Risk Assessment:
  • GF Value™: C$8.42 vs. price of C$13.87 (64.7% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 55/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the TSX:OBE stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Obsidian Energy Business Description

Industry EnergyOil & Gas
Other Exchanges OBE:USAP13A:Germany
Address 207 - 9th Avenue SW, Suite 200, Calgary, AB, CAN, T2P 1K3
Obsidian Energy Ltd is an intermediate-sized oil and gas producer with strategic assets in Alberta. It operates in a single reporting segment that is exploration, development, and holding an interest in oil and natural gas properties and related production infrastructure in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. The company generates the majority of the revenue from the Sale of Oil.
55GF Score

Get the complete analysis for TSX:OBE

Risk Assessment is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

C$13.87
Price
C$8.42
GF Value