Alcoa (AA) Shiller PE Ratio: (As of Sep. 21, 2026)

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AA Alcoa Corp AA
71 GF Score
Price $44.75
GF Value $33.58
Valuation Significantly Overvalued
! 8 Warning Signs
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What is Alcoa Shiller PE Ratio?

Shiller PE for Stocks: The True Measure of Stock Valuation


Alcoa  (NYSE:AA) Shiller PE Ratio Explanation

Compared with the regular PE Ratio, which works poorly for cyclical businesses, the Shiller PE Ratio smoothed out the fluctuations of profit margins during business cycles. Therefore it is more accurate in reflecting the valuation of the company.

If a company has consistent business performance, the Shiller PE Ratio should give similar results to regular PE Ratio.

Compared with the PS Ratio, the Shiller PE Ratio makes the comparison between different industries more meaningful.


Be Aware

Shiller PE Ratio assumes that over the long term, businesses and profitability revert to their means. If a company's business model does not work in the future compared with the past, Shiller PE Ratio and PS Ratio will give false valuations.


Alcoa Shiller PE Ratio Related Terms


Alcoa Shiller PE Ratio Historical Data

* Premium members only.

The historical data trend for Alcoa's Shiller PE Ratio can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

Alcoa Shiller PE Ratio Chart

Alcoa Annual Data
Trend Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23 Dec24 Dec25
Shiller PE Ratio
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Alcoa Quarterly Data
Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23 Mar24 Jun24 Sep24 Dec24 Mar25 Jun25 Sep25 Dec25 Mar26 Jun26
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AA vs CENX, CSTM, KALU: Shiller PE Ratio Comparison

For the Aluminum subindustry, Alcoa's Shiller PE Ratio, along with its competitors' market caps and Shiller PE Ratio data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Alcoa Shiller PE Ratio vs Metals & Mining Industry

For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Alcoa's Shiller PE Ratio distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Alcoa's Shiller PE Ratio falls into.


AA
71GF Score
Alcoa Corp AA
Shiller PE Ratio is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Alcoa Shiller PE Ratio Calculation

For Shiller PE Ratio, the earnings of the past 10 years are inflation-adjusted and averaged. The result is used for P/E calculation. Since it looks at the average over the last 10 years, the Shiller PE Ratio is also called PE10.

The Shiller PE Ratio was first used by professor Robert Shiller to measure the valuation of the overall market. The same calculation is applied here to individual companies.

Alcoa's E10 for the quarter that ended in Jun. 2026 is calculated as:

For example, Alcoa's adjusted earnings per share data for the three months ended in Jun. 2026 was:

Adj_EPS=Earnings per Share (Diluted)/CPI of Jun. 2026 (Change)*Current CPI (Jun. 2026)
=1.5301/333.9520*333.9520
=1.530

Current CPI (Jun. 2026) = 333.9520.

Alcoa Quarterly Data

Earnings per Share (Diluted) CPI Adj_EPS
201609 -0.165 241.428 -0.228
201612 -0.680 241.432 -0.941
201703 1.210 243.801 1.657
201706 0.400 244.955 0.545
201709 0.604 246.819 0.818
201712 -1.059 246.524 -1.435
201803 1.037 249.554 1.388
201806 0.053 251.989 0.070
201809 -0.032 252.439 -0.043
201812 0.271 251.233 0.360
201903 -1.076 254.202 -1.413
201906 -2.161 256.143 -2.818
201909 -1.188 256.759 -1.545
201912 -1.633 256.974 -2.122
202003 0.428 258.115 0.553
202006 -1.059 257.797 -1.372
202009 -0.263 260.280 -0.338
202012 -0.022 260.474 -0.028
202103 0.926 264.877 1.167
202106 1.626 271.696 1.999
202109 1.764 274.310 2.148
202112 -2.111 278.802 -2.529
202203 2.495 287.504 2.898
202206 2.952 296.311 3.327
202209 -4.168 296.808 -4.689
202212 -2.114 296.797 -2.378
202303 -1.298 301.836 -1.436
202306 -0.573 305.109 -0.627
202309 -0.944 307.789 -1.024
202312 -0.841 306.746 -0.915
202403 -1.408 312.332 -1.505
202406 0.111 314.175 0.117
202409 0.385 315.301 0.407
202412 0.776 315.605 0.821
202503 2.108 319.799 2.201
202506 0.631 322.561 0.653
202509 0.889 324.800 0.914
202512 0.858 324.054 0.885
202603 1.598 330.213 1.616
202606 1.530 333.952 1.530

Add all the adjusted EPS together and divide 10 will get our E10.

Please note that we use the CPI data of the country/region where the company is headquartered. If the CPI data for that country/region is not available, then we will use the CPI data of the United States as default.

Is Alcoa (AA) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alcoa stock appears to be overvalued. The current stock price of $44.75 is trading 33.3% above its estimated GF Value™ of $33.58. GuruFocus considers Alcoa to be Significantly Overvalued.

Key valuation signals for AA:

  • Shiller PE Ratio:
  • GF Value™: $33.58 vs. price of $44.75 (33.3% above fair value)
  • GF Score™: 71/100 with 8 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the AA stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Alcoa Business Description

Address 201 Isabella Street, Suite 500, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, 15212-5858
Alcoa is a vertically integrated aluminum company whose operations include bauxite mining, alumina refining, and manufacturing primary aluminum. It is one of the world's largest bauxite miners and alumina refiners by production volume, but sits outside the top-10 aluminum producers, a list dominated by Chinese companies. Profits are closely tied to prevailing commodity prices along the aluminum supply chain.Alcoa was the first mass producer of aluminum, launching the world-changing Hall-Heroult smelting process in the 1880s, making aluminum affordable. It listed as a public company in 1925. In 2016, Alcoa spun off its automotive and aerospace metal parts segment to focus on mining, smelting, and refining. It bought the 40% unowned balance of AWAC in mid-2024.
71GF Score

Get the complete analysis for AA

Shiller PE Ratio is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$44.75
Price
$33.58
GF Value