Origin EnergyASX:ORG +0.92%64 Altman Z-Score is 2.06 as of Jun. 26, 2026, which is 35% above its 10-year median of 1.53. GuruFocus rates ASX:ORG with a GF Score™ of 64/100 and a GF Value™ of A$10.17 (Fairly Valued). The stock has 6 warning signs investors should review. Among 497 Utilities - Regulated companies, Origin Energy ranks better than 72.43% on this metric.
The Altman Z-Score is a model designed to predict the likelihood of a company going bankrupt within the next two years. Created by American finance professor Edward Altman in 1968, the model is specifically designed for publicly traded manufacturing companies with assets greater than $1 million.
Warning Sign:
Altman Z-score of 2.05 is in the grey area. This implies that the company is under some kind of financial stress. If it is below 1.8, the company may face bankruptcy risk.
Origin Energy has a Altman Z-Score of 2.06, indicating it is in Grey Zones. This implies that Origin Energy is in some kind of financial stress. If it is below 1.81, the company may face bankrupcy risk.
The zones of discrimination were as such:
When Altman Z-Score <= 1.8, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z-Score >= 3, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z-Score is between 1.8 and 3, it is in Grey Zones.
The historical rank and industry rank for Origin Energy's Altman Z-Score or its related term are showing as below:
ASX:ORG'
s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.75 Med: 1.53 Max: 2.07
Current: 2.05
During the past 13 years, Origin Energy's highest Altman Z-Score was 2.07. The lowest was 0.75. And the median was 1.53.
Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) Altman Z-Score Explanation
X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.
X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.
X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.
X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm's assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.
X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm's assets.
Altman Z-Score does not apply to financial companies.
Origin Energy Altman Z-Score Related Terms
Origin Energy Altman Z-Score Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Origin Energy's Altman Z-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
For the Utilities - Diversified subindustry, Origin Energy's Altman Z-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Origin Energy Altman Z-Score vs Utilities - Regulated Industry
For the Utilities - Regulated industry and Utilities sector, Origin Energy's Altman Z-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Origin Energy's Altman Z-Score falls into.
Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.
Origin Energy's Altman Z-Score for today is calculated with this formula:
Z
=
1.2
*
X1
+
1.4
*
X2
+
3.3
*
X3
+
0.6
*
X4
+
1.0
*
X5
=
1.2
*
0.0327
+
1.4
*
-0.0619
+
3.3
*
0.0834
+
0.6
*
1.6901
+
1.0
*
0.8156
=
2.06
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z-Score when X4 or X5 value is 0.
Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) has a Altman Z-Score of 2.06 as of Jun. 26, 2026. The Altman Z-score measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on Origin Energy and its competitors. This is 35% above median its historical median of 1.53. Over the past decade, Origin Energy's Altman Z-Score has ranged from 0.75 to 2.07. According to the industry distribution chart, Origin Energy ranks #137 out of 497 companies in the Utilities - Regulated industry, placing it in the top 27.6%.
Is Origin Energy's Altman Z-Score too high?
Origin Energy's current Altman Z-Score of 2.06 is 35% above median its 10-year median of 1.53. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.75 to a high of 2.07. The Utilities - Regulated industry median Altman Z-Score is 1.26. Origin Energy's value of 2.06 is 63.5% above this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Origin Energy ranks #137 out of 497 companies in the Utilities - Regulated industry, which is above the industry midpoint. Overall, Origin Energy has a GF Score™ of 64/100 and is considered Fairly Valued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Origin Energy's Altman Z-Score compare to SRE and AES?
According to the Utilities - Regulated industry distribution chart, Origin Energy ranks #137 out of 497 companies for Altman Z-Score. This puts Origin Energy in the upper half of its industry. The industry median Altman Z-Score is 1.26. Origin Energy's value of 2.06 is 63.5% above this benchmark. Historically, Origin Energy's own Altman Z-Score has ranged from 0.75 to 2.07 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 1.53 vs. the industry median of 1.26, Origin Energy has consistently been above the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Altman Z-Score for an Utilities - Regulated company?
The median Altman Z-Score among Utilities - Regulated companies is 1.26, based on 497 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Altman Z-Score significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Altman Z-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Origin Energy's current Altman Z-Score of 2.06 is 63.5% above the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Altman Z-Score mean?
A high Altman Z-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Altman Z-score measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on Origin Energy and its competitors. For the Utilities - Regulated industry, the median Altman Z-Score is 1.26 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Origin Energy's current Altman Z-Score is 2.06, which is 35% above median its own 10-year median of 1.53. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Origin Energy stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) is currently considered Fairly Valued. The stock's GF Value™ is A$10.17, compared to a current price of A$10.96 — trading 7.8% above its estimated fair value. The current Altman Z-Score is 2.06, which is 35% above median its 10-year median of 1.53 and 63.5% above the Utilities - Regulated industry median of 1.26. Origin Energy's overall GF Score™ is 64/100 with 6 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Altman Z-Score calculated?
Altman Z-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Origin Energy (ASX:ORG), the current Altman Z-Score is 2.06 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Origin Energy stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of A$10.96 is trading 7.8% above its estimated GF Value™ of A$10.17.
GuruFocus considers Origin Energy to be Fairly Valued.
Key valuation signals for ASX:ORG:
Altman Z-Score: 2.06 (35% above median its 10-year median of 1.53)
GF Value™: A$10.17 vs. price of A$10.96 (7.8% above fair value)
Industry Position: 63.5% above the Utilities - Regulated median (#137 of 497)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ASX:ORG stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Origin Energy is a major vertically integrated Australian energy utility. Its energy retailing business is the largest in Australia, with about 4 million customers and a 33% market share. Its portfolio of base-load, intermediate, and peaking electricity plants is one of the largest in the national electricity market, with a capacity of 6,000 megawatts. Origin also operates and owns 27.5% of Australia Pacific LNG, which owns large coal seam gas fields and LNG export facilities in Queensland.
64GF Score
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