Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
The Altman Z-Score is a model designed to predict the likelihood of a company going bankrupt within the next two years. Created by American finance professor Edward Altman in 1968, the model is specifically designed for publicly traded manufacturing companies with assets greater than $1 million.
Warning Sign:
Altman Z-score of -1.22 is in distress zone. This implies bankruptcy possibility in the next two years.
China Aoyuan Group has a Altman Z-Score of -1.22, indicating it is in Distress Zones. This implies bankrupcy possibility in the next two years.
The zones of discrimination were as such:
When Altman Z-Score <= 1.8, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z-Score >= 3, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z-Score is between 1.8 and 3, it is in Grey Zones.
The historical rank and industry rank for China Aoyuan Group's Altman Z-Score or its related term are showing as below:
CAOYF'
s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: -1.22 Med: 0.16 Max: 0.77
Current: -1.22
During the past 13 years, China Aoyuan Group's highest Altman Z-Score was 0.77. The lowest was -1.22. And the median was 0.16.
China Aoyuan Group (OTCPK:CAOYF) Altman Z-Score Explanation
X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.
X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.
X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.
X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm's assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.
X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm's assets.
Altman Z-Score does not apply to financial companies.
China Aoyuan Group Altman Z-Score Related Terms
China Aoyuan Group Altman Z-Score Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for China Aoyuan Group's Altman Z-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
China Aoyuan Group Altman Z-Score Competitor Comparison
For the Real Estate - Development subindustry, China Aoyuan Group's Altman Z-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
China Aoyuan Group Altman Z-Score vs Real Estate Industry
For the Real Estate industry and Real Estate sector, China Aoyuan Group's Altman Z-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where China Aoyuan Group's Altman Z-Score falls into.
Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.
China Aoyuan Group's Altman Z-Score for today is calculated with this formula:
Z
=
1.2
*
X1
+
1.4
*
X2
+
3.3
*
X3
+
0.6
*
X4
+
1.0
*
X5
=
1.2
*
-0.3121
+
1.4
*
-0.4366
+
3.3
*
-0.0932
+
0.6
*
0.001
+
1.0
*
0.0722
=
-1.22
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z-Score when X4 or X5 value is 0.
China Aoyuan Group (CAOYF) has a Altman Z-Score of -1.22 as of Aug. 31, 2026. The Altman Z-score measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on China Aoyuan Group and its competitors. According to the industry distribution chart, China Aoyuan Group ranks #1649 out of 1729 companies in the Real Estate industry, placing it in the top 95.4%.
Is China Aoyuan Group's Altman Z-Score too high?
China Aoyuan Group's current Altman Z-Score is -1.22. Based on the distribution chart, China Aoyuan Group ranks #1649 out of 1729 companies in the Real Estate industry, which is in the bottom quartile relative to peers. Overall, China Aoyuan Group has a GF Score™ of 12/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does China Aoyuan Group's Altman Z-Score compare to competitors?
According to the Real Estate industry distribution chart, China Aoyuan Group ranks #1649 out of 1729 companies for Altman Z-Score. This places China Aoyuan Group in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Altman Z-Score is 1.31. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Altman Z-Score for a Real Estate company?
The median Altman Z-Score among Real Estate companies is 1.31, based on 1,729 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Altman Z-Score significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Altman Z-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Altman Z-Score mean?
A high Altman Z-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Altman Z-score measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on China Aoyuan Group and its competitors. For the Real Estate industry, the median Altman Z-Score is 1.31 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. China Aoyuan Group's current Altman Z-Score is -1.22. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is China Aoyuan Group stock overvalued right now?
China Aoyuan Group (CAOYF) has a current Altman Z-Score of -1.22. The stock's GF Value™ is $0.40, compared to a current price of $0.21 — trading 48.3% below its estimated fair value. The current Altman Z-Score is -1.22. China Aoyuan Group's overall GF Score™ is 12/100 with 2 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Altman Z-Score calculated?
Altman Z-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For China Aoyuan Group (CAOYF), the current Altman Z-Score is -1.22 as of Aug. 31, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is China Aoyuan Group (CAOYF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, China Aoyuan Group stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $0.21 is trading 48.3% below its estimated GF Value™ of $0.40.
Key valuation signals for CAOYF:
Altman Z-Score: -1.22
GF Value™: $0.40 vs. price of $0.21 (48.3% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the CAOYF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
China Aoyuan Group Ltd is a developer and operator of composite real estate in China. It is also engaged in the health-themed related industries to promote a healthy lifestyle in the city. Its segments include Property development engaged in development and sale of properties; Property investment engaged in lease of investment properties; and Others engaged in hotel operation, provision of services and sales of goods. It derives the majority of the revenue from Property development segment. Geographically, it operates in Mainland China, Hong Kong, and Canda with majority of revenue deriving from Mainland China.
12GF Score
Get the complete analysis for CAOYF
Altman Z-Score is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
CAOYF has been successfully added to your 
