MercariMRCIF 62 Altman Z-Score is 1.57 as of Jun. 26, 2026, which is 6% above its 10-year median of 1.48. GuruFocus rates MRCIF with a GF Score™ of 62/100 and a GF Value™ of $12.01. The stock has 8 warning signs investors should review. Among 1,117 Retail - Cyclical companies, Mercari ranks worse than 73.95% on this metric.
The Altman Z-Score is a model designed to predict the likelihood of a company going bankrupt within the next two years. Created by American finance professor Edward Altman in 1968, the model is specifically designed for publicly traded manufacturing companies with assets greater than $1 million.
Warning Sign:
Altman Z-score of 1.56 is in distress zone. This implies bankruptcy possibility in the next two years.
Mercari has a Altman Z-Score of 1.57, indicating it is in Distress Zones. This implies bankrupcy possibility in the next two years.
The zones of discrimination were as such:
When Altman Z-Score <= 1.8, it is in Distress Zones.
When Altman Z-Score >= 3, it is in Safe Zones.
When Altman Z-Score is between 1.8 and 3, it is in Grey Zones.
The historical rank and industry rank for Mercari's Altman Z-Score or its related term are showing as below:
MRCIF'
s Altman Z-Score Range Over the Past 10 Years
Min: 0.99 Med: 1.48 Max: 6.34
Current: 1.56
During the past 10 years, Mercari's highest Altman Z-Score was 6.34. The lowest was 0.99. And the median was 1.48.
Mercari (OTCPK:MRCIF) Altman Z-Score Explanation
X1: The Working Capital/Total Assets (WC/TA) ratio is a measure of the net liquid assets of the firm relative to the total capitalization. Working capital is defined as the difference between current assets and current liabilities. Ordinarily, a firm experiencing consistent operating losses will have shrinking current assets in relation to total assets. Altman found this one proved to be the most valuable liquidity ratio comparing with the current ratio and the quick ratio. This is however the least significant of the five factors.
X2: Retained Earnings/Total Assets: the RE/TA ratio measures the leverage of a firm. Retained earnings is the account which reports the total amount of reinvested earnings and/or losses of a firm over its entire life. Those firms with high RE, relative to TA, have financed their assets through retention of profits and have not utilized as much debt.
X3, Earnings Before Interest and Taxes/Total Assets (EBIT/TA): This ratio is a measure of the true productivity of the firm's assets, independent of any tax or leverage factors. Since a firm's ultimate existence is based on the earning power of its assets, this ratio appears to be particularly appropriate for studies dealing with corporate failure. This ratio continually outperforms other profitability measures, including cash flow.
X4, Market Value of Equity/Book Value of Total Liabilities (MVE/TL): The measure shows how much the firm's assets can decline in value (measured by market value of equity plus debt) before the liabilities exceed the assets and the firm becomes insolvent.
X5, Revenue/Total Assets (S/TA): The capital-turnover ratio is a standard financial ratio illustrating the sales generating ability of the firm's assets.
Altman Z-Score does not apply to financial companies.
Mercari Altman Z-Score Related Terms
Mercari Altman Z-Score Historical Data
* Premium members only.
The historical data trend for Mercari's Altman Z-Score can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
MRCIF vs AMZN, BABA, PDD: Altman Z-Score Comparison
For the Internet Retail subindustry, Mercari's Altman Z-Score, along with its competitors' market caps and Altman Z-Score data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Mercari Altman Z-Score vs Retail - Cyclical Industry
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Mercari's Altman Z-Score distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Mercari's Altman Z-Score falls into.
Altman Z-Score model is an accurate forecaster of failure up to two years prior to distress. It can be considered the assessment of the distress of industrial corporations.
Mercari's Altman Z-Score for today is calculated with this formula:
Z
=
1.2
*
X1
+
1.4
*
X2
+
3.3
*
X3
+
0.6
*
X4
+
1.0
*
X5
=
1.2
*
0.246
+
1.4
*
0.0244
+
3.3
*
0.0663
+
0.6
*
1.1435
+
1.0
*
0.3343
=
1.57
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD. * For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency. GuruFocus does not calculate Altman Z-Score when X4 or X5 value is 0.
Mercari (MRCIF) has a Altman Z-Score of 1.57 as of Jun. 26, 2026. The Altman Z-score measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on Mercari and its competitors. This is near median its historical median of 1.48. Over the past decade, Mercari's Altman Z-Score has ranged from 0.99 to 6.34. According to the industry distribution chart, Mercari ranks #826 out of 1117 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, placing it in the top 73.9%.
Is Mercari's Altman Z-Score too high?
Mercari's current Altman Z-Score of 1.57 is near median its 10-year median of 1.48. Over the past 10 years, this metric has ranged from a low of 0.99 to a high of 6.34. The Retail - Cyclical industry median Altman Z-Score is 2.73. Mercari's value of 1.57 is 42.5% below this industry median. Based on the distribution chart, Mercari ranks #826 out of 1117 companies in the Retail - Cyclical industry, which is below the industry midpoint. Overall, Mercari has a GF Score™ of 62/100, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Mercari's Altman Z-Score compare to AMZN and BABA?
According to the Retail - Cyclical industry distribution chart, Mercari ranks #826 out of 1117 companies for Altman Z-Score. This places Mercari in the lower half of its industry. The industry median Altman Z-Score is 2.73. Mercari's value of 1.57 is 42.5% below this benchmark. Historically, Mercari's own Altman Z-Score has ranged from 0.99 to 6.34 over the past decade. While the company's 10-year median is 1.48 vs. the industry median of 2.73, Mercari has consistently been below the industry average. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Altman Z-Score for a Retail - Cyclical company?
The median Altman Z-Score among Retail - Cyclical companies is 2.73, based on 1,117 companies in the industry. Companies in the top quartile (top 25%) have a Altman Z-Score significantly above this median, while those in the bottom quartile fall well below. However, Altman Z-Score should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Mercari's current Altman Z-Score of 1.57 is 42.5% below the industry median. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Altman Z-Score mean?
A high Altman Z-Score can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. The Altman Z-score measures a company's bankruptcy risk. View historical data on Mercari and its competitors. For the Retail - Cyclical industry, the median Altman Z-Score is 2.73 — values significantly above this may indicate overvaluation, while values below may suggest a bargain or underlying issues. Mercari's current Altman Z-Score is 1.57, which is near median its own 10-year median of 1.48. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Mercari stock overvalued right now?
Mercari (MRCIF) has a current Altman Z-Score of 1.57. The stock's GF Value™ is $12.01, compared to a current price of $15.88 — trading 32.2% above its estimated fair value. The current Altman Z-Score is 1.57, which is near median its 10-year median of 1.48 and 42.5% below the Retail - Cyclical industry median of 2.73. Mercari's overall GF Score™ is 62/100 with 8 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Altman Z-Score calculated?
Altman Z-Score is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Mercari (MRCIF), the current Altman Z-Score is 1.57 as of Jun. 26, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Mercari (MRCIF) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Mercari stock appears to be overvalued.
The current stock price of $15.88 is trading 32.2% above its estimated GF Value™ of $12.01.
Key valuation signals for MRCIF:
Altman Z-Score: 1.57 (near median its 10-year median of 1.48)
GF Value™: $12.01 vs. price of $15.88 (32.2% above fair value)
Industry Position: 42.5% below the Retail - Cyclical median (#826 of 1117)
No single metric tells the full story. See the MRCIF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Mercari operates the largest consumer-to-consumer secondhand goods trading platform in Japan in Mercari, with over 23 million monthly active users and over JPY 1.1 trillion in gross merchandise value in fiscal 2022. We estimate that it currently has over 40% market share in the online C2C market, making it the top platform in Japan. It operates a domestic fintech business and a C2C marketplace app business in the US as well. Domestic business roughly accounts for over 95% of its total GMV.
62GF Score
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