GMO publishes a monthly forecasts of 7-year asset class return. As of Jan 31, 2012, US market is expected to return 0.8% a year. US small cap is positioned for -1.5%. US high quality is expected to gain 5% a year. Emerging market is expected to gain 5.6%. Almost all bonds will return negative.
All the numbers are net returns after a 2.5% of long term inflation rate.
The results for US market is very close to what GuruFocus gets from the ratio of total market cap over GDP, or Shiller P/E ratio.
The prediction for emerging market is lower that what GuruFocus expected from the Global Market Valuation page. This page also predicts better returns from Singapore and Australia.
All the numbers are net returns after a 2.5% of long term inflation rate.
The results for US market is very close to what GuruFocus gets from the ratio of total market cap over GDP, or Shiller P/E ratio.
The prediction for emerging market is lower that what GuruFocus expected from the Global Market Valuation page. This page also predicts better returns from Singapore and Australia.
