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As of Jan24, Five Below's earnings power value is $-10.44. *
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.
Margin of Safety is N/A.
The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.
The historical data trend for Five Below's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
Five Below Annual Data | |||||||||||||||||||||
Trend | Jan15 | Jan16 | Jan17 | Jan18 | Jan19 | Jan20 | Jan21 | Jan22 | Jan23 | Jan24 | |||||||||||
Earnings Power Value (EPV) | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | 0.25 | -1.73 | -4.82 | -5.83 | -10.44 |
Five Below Quarterly Data | ||||||||||||||||||||
Apr19 | Jul19 | Oct19 | Jan20 | Apr20 | Jul20 | Oct20 | Jan21 | Apr21 | Jul21 | Oct21 | Jan22 | Apr22 | Jul22 | Oct22 | Jan23 | Apr23 | Jul23 | Oct23 | Jan24 | |
Earnings Power Value (EPV) | Get a 7-Day Free Trial | -5.83 | -5.09 | -5.97 | -14.20 | -10.44 |
For the Specialty Retail subindustry, Five Below's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
For the Retail - Cyclical industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Five Below's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Five Below's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.
Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.
The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.
Five Below's "Earning Power" Calculation:
Average of Last 20 Quarters | Last Quarter | |
Revenue | 2,659 | |
DDA | 89 | |
Operating Margin % | 8.02 | |
SGA * 25% | 146 | |
Tax Rate % | 21.96 | |
Maintenance Capex | 227 | |
Cash and Cash Equivalents | 460 | |
Short-Term Debt | 241 | |
Long-Term Debt | 1,498 | |
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) | 55 |
1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.
2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 8.02%
To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.
3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:
To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $2,659 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 8.02%, Average Adjusted SGA = 146,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 2,659 * 8.02% +146 = $359.239033634 Mil.
4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):
Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 21.96%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $359.239033634 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 359.239033634 * ( 1 - 21.96% ) = $280.33577228663 Mil.
5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:
Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 89 * 0.5 * 21.96% = $9.785379316 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 280.33577228663 + 9.785379316 = $290.12115160263 Mil.
6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:
First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Five Below's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $227 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.
7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%
8. Five Below's current cash and cash equivalent = $460 Mil.
Five Below's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 1,498 + 241 = $1738.55 Mil.
Five Below's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 55 Mil.
Five Below's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Jan24 is calculated as:
EPV | = | ( ( Norm. Earnings | - | Maint. CAPEX *) | / | WACC | + | CashandEquiv | - | Int. Bearing Debt ) | / | Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) |
= | ( ( 290.12115160263 | - | 227) | / | 9% | + | 460 | - | 1738.55 ) | / | 55 | |
= | -10.44 |
Margin of Safety (EPV) | = | ( Earnings Power Value (EPV) | - | Current Price ) | / | Earnings Power Value (EPV) |
= | ( -10.444546532885 | - | 150.08 ) | / | -10.444546532885 | |
= | N/A |
* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.
Five Below (NAS:FIVE) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation
Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.
Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.
Be Aware
Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.
Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Five Below's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Thomas Vellios | director | C/O FIVE BELOW, INC., 1818 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2000, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
Mimi Eckel Vaughn | director | C/O GENESCO INC, 535 MARRIOTT DRIVE, NASHVILLE TN 37214 |
Joel D Anderson | director, officer: President & CEO | 6436 CITY WEST PARKWAY, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344 |
Kristy Chipman | officer: CFO & Treasurer | 1030 W. CANTON AVENUE, SUITE 100, WINTER PARK FL 32789 |
Ronald Sargent | director | 1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202 |
Catherine Elizabeth Buggeln | director | THE DRESS BARN, INC., 30 DUNNIGAN DRIVE, SUFFERN NY 10901 |
Kathleen S Barclay | director | 300 RENAISSANCE CENTER, PO BOX 300 MC 482 C32 D82, DETROIT MI 48265-3000 |
Michael Romanko | officer: CMO | C/O FIVE BELOW, INC., 1818 MARKET ST, STE. 2000, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
George Hill | officer: EVP, Store Operations | C/O FIVE BELOW, INC., 1818 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2000, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103 |
Eric M Specter | officer: CAO | |
Kenneth R Bull | officer: CFO & Treasurer | 1809 WALNUT STREET, PHILADELLPHIA PA 19103 |
Zuhairah Scott Washington | director | C/O FIVE BELOW, INC., 701 MARKET STREET, SUITE 300, PHILADELPHIA PA 19106 |
Devine Michael F Iii | director | COACH, 516 W 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 1001 |
Bernard Jin Kim | director | C/O MATCH GROUP, INC., 8750 N CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75231 |
Judith L. Werthauser | officer: Chief Experience Officer | 2726 MAITLAND DRIVE, ANN ARBOR MI 48105 |
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