FIVE (Five Below) Predictability Rank

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What is Five Below Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Five Below Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Five Below Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Five Below Inc (NAS:FIVE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0IPD:UK 6F1:Germany 6F1:Germany

Address

701 Market Street, Suite 300, Philadelphia, PA, USA, 19106

Website

https://www.fivebelow.com

Five Below Inc is a specialty value retailer offering merchandise targeted at the tween and teen demographic. The Company's edited assortment of products includes select brands and licensed merchandise.

Executives

Eric M Specter	officer: CAO
Thomas Vellios	director	C/O FIVE BELOW, INC., 1818 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2000, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Mimi Eckel Vaughn	director	C/O GENESCO INC, 535 MARRIOTT DRIVE, NASHVILLE TN 37214
Joel D Anderson	director, officer: President & CEO	6436 CITY WEST PARKWAY, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55344
Kristy Chipman	officer: CFO & Treasurer	1030 W. CANTON AVENUE, SUITE 100, WINTER PARK FL 32789
Ronald Sargent	director	1014 VINE STREET, CINCINNATI OH 45202
Catherine Elizabeth Buggeln	director	THE DRESS BARN, INC., 30 DUNNIGAN DRIVE, SUFFERN NY 10901
Kathleen S Barclay	director	300 RENAISSANCE CENTER, PO BOX 300 MC 482 C32 D82, DETROIT MI 48265-3000
Michael Romanko	officer: CMO	C/O FIVE BELOW, INC., 1818 MARKET ST, STE. 2000, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
George Hill	officer: EVP, Store Operations	C/O FIVE BELOW, INC., 1818 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2000, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Kenneth R Bull	officer: CFO & Treasurer	1809 WALNUT STREET, PHILADELLPHIA PA 19103
Zuhairah Scott Washington	director	C/O FIVE BELOW, INC., 701 MARKET STREET, SUITE 300, PHILADELPHIA PA 19106
Devine Michael F Iii	director	COACH, 516 W 34TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 1001
Bernard Jin Kim	director	C/O MATCH GROUP, INC., 8750 N CENTRAL EXPRESSWAY, SUITE 1400, DALLAS TX 75231
Judith L. Werthauser	officer: Chief Experience Officer	2726 MAITLAND DRIVE, ANN ARBOR MI 48105