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Graco (NYSE:GGG) Earnings Power Value (EPV)

: $28.38 (As of Dec23)
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As of Dec23, Graco's earnings power value is $28.38. *

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

Margin of Safety is -215.18

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future. Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.


Graco Earnings Power Value (EPV) Historical Data

The historical data trend for Graco's Earnings Power Value (EPV) can be seen below:

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* Premium members only.

Graco Annual Data
Trend Dec14 Dec15 Dec16 Dec17 Dec18 Dec19 Dec20 Dec21 Dec22 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV)
Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 19.86 22.26 25.58 26.00 28.38

Graco Quarterly Data
Mar19 Jun19 Sep19 Dec19 Mar20 Jun20 Sep20 Dec20 Mar21 Jun21 Sep21 Dec21 Mar22 Jun22 Sep22 Dec22 Mar23 Jun23 Sep23 Dec23
Earnings Power Value (EPV) Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only Premium Member Only 26.00 26.27 26.95 27.40 28.38

Competitive Comparison

For the Specialty Industrial Machinery subindustry, Graco's Earnings Power Value (EPV), along with its competitors' market caps and Earnings Power Value (EPV) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Graco Earnings Power Value (EPV) Distribution

For the Industrial Products industry and Industrials sector, Graco's Earnings Power Value (EPV) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Graco's Earnings Power Value (EPV) falls into.



Graco Earnings Power Value (EPV) Calculation

Earnings Power Value also known as just Earnings Power is a valuation technique popularised by Bruce Greenwald, an authority on value investing at Columbia University. It is arguably a better way to analyze stocks than Discounted Cash Flow analysis that relies on highly speculative growth assumptions many years into the future.

The basic concept of EPV is that one should value a stock based on the current free cash flow of a company and not on future projections which may, or may not, come true. This valuation tool excludes the potential growth that a company may have so that needs to be looked at separately. Since future growth is excluded from the analysis, only the maintenance capital expenditures are subtracted from after-tax EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) and growth capex is ignored.

Graco's "Earning Power" Calculation:

Average of Last 20 Quarters Last Quarter
Revenue 1,925
DDA 61
Operating Margin % 26.85
SGA * 25% 99
Tax Rate % 15.78
Maintenance Capex 129
Cash and Cash Equivalents 538
Short-Term Debt 38
Long-Term Debt 12
Shares Outstanding (Diluted) 172

1. Start with "Earnings" not including accounting adjustments (one-time charges not excluded unless policy has changed). "Earnings" are "Operating Income.

2. Look at average margins over a business/Industry cycle: Average Operating Margin = 26.85%

To normalize margins and eliminate the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle, it is usually best to take a long-term average of operating margins. Ideally this would be as long as 10 years and include at least one economic downturn. However, since most of companies do not have as long as 10-year history, here GuruFocus uses the latest 5 years data to do the calculation. To smooth out unusual years but reflect recent developments, we take an average of the 5 year margin.

3. Multiply average margins by sustainable revenues and then adjust for maintenance SGA. This yields "normalized" EBIT:

To be conservative, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year revenues as the sustainable revenue.
EPV analysis recognises that part of SG&A expenditure is made to maintain and replace the existing assets, while part is made to grow sales. Since EPV is only interested in what it costs a going concern to maintain its existing asset base, it adds back a percentage of SG&A (between 15% and 50% - this is a matter of judgment and industry knowledge) to make up for the fact that some of this expenditure went to fund growth and shouldn't be accounted for. To start off, we assume 25% for the sake of prudence.
Sustainable Revenue = $1,925 Mil, Average Operating Margin = 26.85%, Average Adjusted SGA = 99,
therefore "Normalized" EBIT = Sustainable Revenue * Average Operating Margin + Average Adjusted SGA = 1,925 * 26.85% +99 = $615.967675975 Mil.

4. Multiply by one minus Average Tax Rate (NOPAT):

Same as average operating margin calculation, GuruFocus takes an average of the 5 years tax rates.
Average Tax Rate = 15.78%, and "Normalized" EBIT = $615.967675975 Mil,
therefore After-tax "Normalized" EBIT = "Normalized" EBIT * ( 1 - Average Tax Rate ) = 615.967675975 * ( 1 - 15.78% ) = $518.79877508994 Mil.

5. Add back Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate). This yields "normalized" Earnings:

Excess Depreciation = Average DDA * % of Excess Depreciation (after tax at 1/2 average tax rate) = 61 * 0.5 * 15.78% = $4.793754325 Mil.
"Normalized" Earnings = After-tax "Normalized" EBIT + Excess Depreciation = 518.79877508994 + 4.793754325 = $523.59252941494 Mil.

6. Adjusted for Maintenance Capital Expenditure:

First, calculate the revenue change regarding to the previous year. If the revenue decreased from the previous year, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
Second, if the revenue increased from the previous year, then calculate the percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue.
Third, calculate Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was negative, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive).
If [Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase] was positive, then the Maintenance Capital Expenditure = Capital Expenditure (positive) - percentage of Net PPE as of corresponding Revenue * revenue increase.
Fourth, GuruFocus uses an average of the 5 year maintenance capital expenditures as maintenance CAPEX.
Graco's Average Maintenance CAPEX = $129 Mil *.
* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.

7. Investors require a return of "WACC" for the risk they are taking: WACC = 9%

8. Graco's current cash and cash equivalent = $538 Mil.
Graco's current interest bearing debt = Long-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation + Short-Term Debt & Capital Lease Obligation = 12 + 38 = $50.063 Mil.
Graco's current Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average) = 172 Mil.

Graco's Earnings Power Value (EPV) for Dec23 is calculated as:

EPV = ( ( Norm. Earnings-Maint. CAPEX *) / WACC + CashandEquiv - Int. Bearing Debt ) / Shares Outstanding (Diluted Average)
= ( ( 523.59252941494 - 129)/ 9%+538-50.063 )/172
=28.38

Margin of Safety (EPV)=( Earnings Power Value (EPV)-Current Price )/Earnings Power Value (EPV)
=( 28.383644014389-89.46 )/28.383644014389
= -215.18%

* For Operating Data section: All numbers are indicated by the unit behind each term and all currency related amount are in USD.
* For other sections: All numbers are in millions except for per share data, ratio, and percentage. All currency related amount are indicated in the company's associated stock exchange currency.

* GuruFocus does not store EPV value into our database if Average Maintenance CAPEX is 0.


Graco  (NYSE:GGG) Earnings Power Value (EPV) Explanation

Assumption: Current profitability is sustainable.

Earnings power value (EPV) uses a very basic equation which assumes no growth, although it does rely on an assumption about the cost of capital as well as the fact that current earnings are sustainable. It also involves several adjustments to clean up the underlying Earnings figures.


Be Aware

Though using today's earnings in calculating Earnings Power Value, GuruFocus is normalizing these earnings to the business cycle. This eliminates the effects on profitability of valuing the firm at different points in the business cycle. This means that we are considering the average earnings over 5 years.


Graco Earnings Power Value (EPV) Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Graco's Earnings Power Value (EPV) provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


Graco (NYSE:GGG) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
88-11th Avenue Northeast, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55413
Graco manufactures equipment used for managing fluids, coatings, and adhesives, specializing in difficult-to-handle materials. Graco's business is organized into three segments: industrial, process, and contractor. The Minnesota-based firm serves a wide range of end markets, including industrial, automotive, and construction, and its broad array of products include pumps, valves, meters, sprayers, and equipment used to apply coatings, sealants, and adhesives. The firm generated roughly $2.1 billion in sales and $573 million in operating income in 2022.
Executives
Mark W Sheahan officer: VICE PRESIDENT AND TREASURER P.O. BOX 1441, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Angela F Wordell officer: Executive VP, Operations 88 11TH AVENUE NE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413
Kathryn L Schoenrock officer: Executive Vice President 88 11TH AVENUE NE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413
Caroline M Chambers officer: Vice President and Controller PO BOX 1441, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Eric Etchart director ROOM F, 22F CROSS REGION PLAZA, 899 LINGLING ROAD, SHANGHAI F4 200030
Van Sant R William director PO BOX 1441, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Timothy R White officer: President, EMEA 88 11TH AVENUE NE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413
Ronita Banerjee officer: EVP, Chief HR Officer 88 11TH AVENUE NE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55105
Jeffrey P. Johnson officer: Vice President 88 - 11TH AVENUE N.E., MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413
Heather L Anfang director 88 11TH AVENUE NE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413
Dale D Johnson officer: VICE PRESIDENT P.O. BOX 1441, MINNEAPOLIS MN 5440-1441
Christopher D. Knutson officer: EVP, Corporate Controller 88 11TH AVENUE NE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413
Claudio Merengo officer: President, Worldwide Gema 88 11TH AVENUE NE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55413
J Kevin Gilligan director P O BOX 1441, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55440-1441
Archie C. Black director 333 SOUTH SEVENTH STREET, SUITE 1000, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402

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