iCetana (ASX:ICE) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.67% (As of Jun. 25, 2026)


What is iCetana Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

iCetana ASX:ICE -2.86% Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.67% as of Jun. 25, 2026. The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, iCetana's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.67%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

iCetana  (ASX:ICE) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

iCetana Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

ASX:ICE vs CRM, SHOP, UBER: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Software - Application subindustry, iCetana's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

iCetana Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Software Industry

For the Software industry and Technology sector, iCetana's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where iCetana's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


iCetana Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-5.00

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.67%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.67% mean?
iCetana (ASX:ICE) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.67% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is iCetana's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
iCetana's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.67%.
How does iCetana's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to CRM and SHOP?
iCetana's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.67% can be compared against companies in the Software industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Software company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Software industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. iCetana's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.67%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is iCetana stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, iCetana (ASX:ICE) is currently considered Significantly Overvalued. The stock's GF Value™ is A$0.01, compared to a current price of A$0.03 — trading 240% above its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.67%. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For iCetana (ASX:ICE), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.67% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

iCetana Business Description

Address 152 St Georges Terrace, Level 32, Perth, WA, AUS, 6000
iCetana Ltd develops and sells AI-assisted video surveillance software that uses machine learning technology to provide automatic real-time anomalous event detection. Its products include Safety and Security, Analytics, Forensic Quick Find, Facial Recognition, Licence Plate Recognition, and GPT Agents. The company operates through three segments: Asia Pacific (APAC), responsible for sales, marketing, and product development in Australia and the broader Asia Pacific region; North America (NA), managing sales and marketing in the United States and Canada; and Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA), handling sales and marketing efforts across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The majority of revenue comes from the Asia Pacific (APAC) segment.