Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.06% (As of Apr. 30, 2024)

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What is Viva Energy Group Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Viva Energy Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Viva Energy Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing subindustry, Viva Energy Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Viva Energy Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Oil & Gas Industry

For the Oil & Gas industry and Energy sector, Viva Energy Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Viva Energy Group's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Viva Energy Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-7.47

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.06%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Viva Energy Group Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Viva Energy Group (ASX:VEA) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Viva Energy Group Ltd (ASX:VEA) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

2AH:Germany

Address

720 Bourke Street, Level 16, Docklands, Melbourne, VIC, AUS, 3008

Website

https://www.vivaenergy.com.au

Viva is Australia's second-largest vertically integrated refined transport fuel supplier. We rate Viva as the second-most-significant pipeline owner, and at approximately 1,155 locations, Viva supplies the third-largest number of retail sites in Australia behind Ampol at approximately 1,985 and BP at 1,400.Vitol bought Shell's Australian downstream operations in 2014, and renamed them Viva Energy. Viva subsequently bought Shell's Australian aviation operations and a 50% investment in Liberty Oil. In 2016, Viva sold (and leased back) a portfolio of its retail sites to Viva Energy REIT and listed Viva Energy REIT on the ASX. It has since sold its entire REIT stake for AUD 734 million.