Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Alphatec Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.38%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Alphatec Holdings (NAS:ATEC) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Alphatec Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
ATEC vs BFLY, INSP, TNDM: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison
For the Medical Devices subindustry, Alphatec Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Alphatec Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Medical Devices & Instruments Industry
For the Medical Devices & Instruments industry and Healthcare sector, Alphatec Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Alphatec Holdings's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Alphatec Holdings Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-5.57
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.38% mean?
Alphatec Holdings (ATEC) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.38% as of Jun. 25, 2026.
Is Alphatec Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Alphatec Holdings' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.38%. Overall, Alphatec Holdings has a GF Score™ of 66/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Alphatec Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to BFLY and INSP?
Alphatec Holdings' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.38% can be compared against companies in the Medical Devices & Instruments industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Medical Devices & Instruments company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Medical Devices & Instruments industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Alphatec Holdings's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.38%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Alphatec Holdings stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alphatec Holdings (ATEC) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is $15.28, compared to a current price of $8.87 — trading 42% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.38%. Alphatec Holdings' overall GF Score™ is 66/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Alphatec Holdings (ATEC), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.38% as of Jun. 25, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Alphatec Holdings (ATEC) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alphatec Holdings stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $8.87 is trading 42% below its estimated GF Value™ of $15.28.
GuruFocus considers Alphatec Holdings to be Possible Value Trap.
Key valuation signals for ATEC:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.38%
GF Value™: $15.28 vs. price of $8.87 (42% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the ATEC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Alphatec Holdings Inc is a medical technology company focused on the designing, development, and advancement of products for the surgical treatment of spinal disorders associated with disease and degeneration, congenital deformities, and trauma. The company's spine approach technologies include Posterior Cervical Fusion, Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion, Lateral Interbody Fusion, and Posterior Lumbar Interbody Fusion among others. Its procedural offerings are designed to address the underlying causes of spinal pathology by advancing the three fundamental objectives of spine surgery: (1) decompression of neural elements, (2) stabilization of spinal segments, and (3) restoration and maintenance of proper spinal alignment.
66GF Score
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