ATEC (Alphatec Holdings) Predictability Rank


ATEC Alphatec Holdings Inc ATEC
66 GF Score
Price $8.80
GF Value $15.28
Valuation Possible Value Trap
! 5 Warning Signs
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What is Alphatec Holdings Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Alphatec Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

ATEC
66GF Score
Alphatec Holdings Inc ATEC
Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Alphatec Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Is Alphatec Holdings (ATEC) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Alphatec Holdings stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $8.80 is trading 42.4% below its estimated GF Value™ of $15.28. GuruFocus considers Alphatec Holdings to be Possible Value Trap.

Key valuation signals for ATEC:

  • Predictability Rank:
  • GF Value™: $15.28 vs. price of $8.80 (42.4% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 66/100 with 5 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the ATEC stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

Alphatec Holdings Business Description

Other Exchanges L1Z1:Germany
Address 1950 Camino Vida Roble, Carlsbad, CA, USA, 92008
Alphatec Holdings Inc is a medical technology company focused on the designing, development, and advancement of products for the surgical treatment of spinal disorders associated with disease and degeneration, congenital deformities, and trauma. The company's spine approach technologies include Posterior Cervical Fusion, Anterior Cervical Discectomy and Fusion, Lateral Interbody Fusion, and Posterior Lumbar Interbody Fusion among others. Its procedural offerings are designed to address the underlying causes of spinal pathology by advancing the three fundamental objectives of spine surgery: (1) decompression of neural elements, (2) stabilization of spinal segments, and (3) restoration and maintenance of proper spinal alignment.
66GF Score

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Predictability Rank is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$8.80
Price
$15.28
GF Value