Focused on building reliable datasets, financial models, and research tools for value-minded investors. Committed to turning complex data into practical guidance for value-investing and long-term wealth.
Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.
Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Avalon Advanced Materials's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.55%.
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Avalon Advanced Materials (OTCPK:AVLND) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation
Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.
Avalon Advanced Materials Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms
Avalon Advanced Materials Probability of Financial Distress (%) Competitor Comparison
For the Other Industrial Metals & Mining subindustry, Avalon Advanced Materials's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:
* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.
Avalon Advanced Materials Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Metals & Mining Industry
For the Metals & Mining industry and Basic Materials sector, Avalon Advanced Materials's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:
* The bar in red indicates where Avalon Advanced Materials's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.
Avalon Advanced Materials Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation
Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:
LPFD
=
-20.12 * NIMTAAVG
+
1.60 * TLMTA
-
7.88 * EXRETAVG
+
1.55 * SIGMA
-
0.005 * RSIZE
-
2.27 * CASHMTA
+
0.070 * MB
-
0.09 * PRICE
-
8.87
=
-5.19
The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:
4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500
EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.
5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns
For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).
What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.55% mean?
Avalon Advanced Materials (AVLND) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.55% as of Jul. 14, 2026.
Is Avalon Advanced Materials' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Avalon Advanced Materials' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.55%. Overall, Avalon Advanced Materials has a GF Score™ of 54/100 and is considered Possible Value Trap, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Avalon Advanced Materials' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to competitors?
Avalon Advanced Materials' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.55% can be compared against companies in the Metals & Mining industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Metals & Mining company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Metals & Mining industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Avalon Advanced Materials's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.55%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Avalon Advanced Materials stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Avalon Advanced Materials (AVLND) is currently considered Possible Value Trap. The stock's GF Value™ is $514.33, compared to a current price of $5.65 — trading 98.9% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.55%. Avalon Advanced Materials' overall GF Score™ is 54/100 with 5 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Avalon Advanced Materials (AVLND), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.55% as of Jul. 14, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.
Is Avalon Advanced Materials (AVLND) Overvalued in 2026?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Avalon Advanced Materials stock appears to be undervalued.
The current stock price of $5.65 is trading 98.9% below its estimated GF Value™ of $514.33.
GuruFocus considers Avalon Advanced Materials to be Possible Value Trap.
Key valuation signals for AVLND:
Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.55%
GF Value™: $514.33 vs. price of $5.65 (98.9% below fair value)
No single metric tells the full story. See the AVLND stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.
Avalon Advanced Materials Inc is a mineral exploration and development company. It is principally engaged in the acquisition, exploration, evaluation, and development of specialty and critical minerals properties, located principally in Canada. It holds an exploration license within four claims in the East Kemptville area of Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. The company also holds an interest in a mining lease in the Warren Township Anorthosite Project, Nechalacho REE Project, and Net Smelter Returns (NSR) rights in the East Cedartree Gold Property, and the Wolf Mountain Platinum-Palladium Project located near Thunder Bay, Ontario.
54GF Score
Get the complete analysis for AVLND
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
AVLND has been successfully added to your 
