Grendene (BSP:GRND3) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02% (As of Jun. 27, 2026)


BSP:GRND3 Grendene SA BSP:GRND3
65 GF Score
Price R$3.86
GF Value R$6.47
Valuation Significantly Undervalued
! 7 Warning Signs
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What is Grendene Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Grendene BSP:GRND3 +0.78% 65 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus rates BSP:GRND3 with a GF Score™ of 65/100 and a GF Value™ of R$6.47 (Significantly Undervalued). The stock has 7 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Grendene's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Grendene  (BSP:GRND3) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.


Grendene Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms


BSP:GRND3 vs NKE, DECK, ONON: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Footwear & Accessories subindustry, Grendene's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.


Grendene Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories Industry

For the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry and Consumer Cyclical sector, Grendene's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Grendene's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


BSP:GRND3
65GF Score
Grendene SA BSP:GRND3
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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Grendene Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-8.64

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.02%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio


8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% mean?
Grendene (BSP:GRND3) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% as of Jun. 27, 2026.
Is Grendene's Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
Grendene's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Overall, Grendene has a GF Score™ of 65/100 and is considered Significantly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does Grendene's Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to NKE and DECK?
Grendene's Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.02% can be compared against companies in the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Manufacturing - Apparel & Accessories industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. Grendene's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is Grendene stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Grendene (BSP:GRND3) is currently considered Significantly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is R$6.47, compared to a current price of R$3.86 — trading 40.3% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02%. Grendene's overall GF Score™ is 65/100 with 7 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For Grendene (BSP:GRND3), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.02% as of Jun. 27, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is Grendene (BSP:GRND3) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, Grendene stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of R$3.86 is trading 40.3% below its estimated GF Value™ of R$6.47. GuruFocus considers Grendene to be Significantly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for BSP:GRND3:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.02%
  • GF Value™: R$6.47 vs. price of R$3.86 (40.3% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 65/100 with 7 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the BSP:GRND3 stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.


Grendene Business Description

Address Avenue Pimentel Gomes 214, Sobral, CE, BRA, 62040-125
Grendene SA is engaged in the development, production, distribution, and sale of plastic footwear for all the socio-economic classes, in the women's, men's, and children's market segments. It also has its stores, franchises, and web commerce channels, operating under the brands Melissa, Grendha, Zaxy, Rider, Cartago, Grendene Kids, and Ipanema. It also owns the brands Pega Forte and Nuar. Geographically, the company operates in Brazil, North America, Asia and Oceania, Europe, Central and South America, and the Middle East and Africa, out of which a majority of its revenue comes from Brazil.
65GF Score

Get the complete analysis for BSP:GRND3

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

R$3.86
Price
R$6.47
GF Value