Aegon (BUE:AEG) Probability of Financial Distress (%) : 0.06% (As of Dec. 13, 2024)

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What is Aegon Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, Aegon's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.06%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Competitive Comparison of Aegon's Probability of Financial Distress (%)

For the Insurance - Diversified subindustry, Aegon's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

Aegon's Probability of Financial Distress (%) Distribution in the Insurance Industry

For the Insurance industry and Financial Services sector, Aegon's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where Aegon's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.

Aegon Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD

-20.12 * NIMTAAVG

1.60 * TLMTA

7.88 * EXRETAVG

1.55 * SIGMA

0.005 * RSIZE

2.27 * CASHMTA

0.070 * MB

0.09 * PRICE

8.87

-7.38

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD	=	1	/	(1 + e^(-LPFD))	*	100%
	=	0.06%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG	=	Net Income	/	Market Total Assets
	=	Net Income	/	(Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA

Total Liabilities

Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For insurance companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA

(Balance Sheet Cash And Cash Equivalents + Short-term investments)

Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE

log (Market Cap

Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB	=	Market Cap	/	Adjusted Book Equity
	=	Market Cap	/	(Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

Aegon (BUE:AEG) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

Aegon Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

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Aegon Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Aegon Ltd (BUE:AEG) » Definitions » Probability of Financial Distress (%)

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

AEGOF:USA AEG:USA AGN:Netherlands AGNa:UK 0Q0Y:UK J060:Germany J060:Germany J06:Germany J060:Germany A1EG34:Brazil

Address

Aegonplein 50, P.O. Box 85, The Hague, ZH, NLD, 2591 TV

Website

https://www.aegon.com

Aegon is a life insurance and long-term savings company listed in the Netherlands. It listed on the Amsterdam Stock Exchange in the 1980s and now has mature operations in the United States, United Kingdom, and four growth markets of Brazil, China, Portugal, and Spain. Over recent years, Aegon has been moving through an extensive transformation program where management has sought to divest noncore operations and improve the risk profile of the business. Financial assets are the parts of the business that are now being run off. Aegon is looking to cycle out of capital-consumptive and volatile-earnings products and recycle funds into capital-light and more predictable strategic businesses.