CASBF (CanSino Biologics) Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.05% (As of Jul. 15, 2026)

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Director of Data and Quant Analytics at GuruFocus
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Dr. Charlie Tian is the founder and CEO of GuruFocus.com, a leading global investment research platform established in 2004. With a Ph.D. in physics, Dr. Tian transitioned from science to finance, applying a data-driven, disciplined approach to value investing.

CASBF CanSino Biologics Inc CASBF
69 GF Score
Price $2.60
GF Value $8.72
Valuation Significantly Undervalued
! 3 Warning Signs
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What is CanSino Biologics Probability of Financial Distress (%)?

CanSino Biologics CASBF 69 Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05% as of Jul. 15, 2026. GuruFocus rates CASBF with a GF Score™ of 69/100 and a GF Value™ of $8.72 (Significantly Undervalued). The stock has 3 warning signs investors should review.

Probability of Financial Distress (%) measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt in the upcoming year given its current financial position. A higher ratio indicates a larger probability of bankruptcy for the company, while a lower ratio indicates a healthier fundamental. As of today, CanSino Biologics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%.

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

CanSino Biologics  (OTCPK:CASBF) Probability of Financial Distress (%) Explanation

Like the Altman Z-Score, the PFD measures a company's bankruptcy risk in the upcoming year. However, the main drawback of the Z-score is it does not apply to banks and insurance companies. According to Investopedia, the concept of "working capital" does not apply to banks and insurance companies, as financial institutions do not have typical current assets or current liabilities like inventories or accounts payable.

CanSino Biologics Probability of Financial Distress (%) Related Terms

CASBF vs ZTS, UTHR: Probability of Financial Distress (%) Comparison

For the Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic subindustry, CanSino Biologics's Probability of Financial Distress (%), along with its competitors' market caps and Probability of Financial Distress (%) data, can be viewed below:

* Competitive companies are chosen from companies within the same industry, with headquarter located in same country, with closest market capitalization; x-axis shows the market cap, and y-axis shows the term value; the bigger the dot, the larger the market cap. Note that "N/A" values will not show up in the chart.

CanSino Biologics Probability of Financial Distress (%) vs Drug Manufacturers Industry

For the Drug Manufacturers industry and Healthcare sector, CanSino Biologics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) distribution charts can be found below:

* The bar in red indicates where CanSino Biologics's Probability of Financial Distress (%) falls into.


CASBF
69GF Score
CanSino Biologics Inc CASBF
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Score™, valuation, warning signs, and more.
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CanSino Biologics Probability of Financial Distress (%) Calculation

Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was developed by John Campbell, Jens Hilscher and Jan Szilagyi in their Search of Distress Risk. It measures the probability that a company will go bankrupt within the next 12 months given its current financial position.

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) was obtained by a logit probability model based on eight explanatory variables. The logit formula to compute the probability of financial distress (LPFD) is given below:

LPFD= -20.12 * NIMTAAVG + 1.60 * TLMTA - 7.88 * EXRETAVG + 1.55 * SIGMA - 0.005 * RSIZE - 2.27 * CASHMTA + 0.070 * MB - 0.09 * PRICE -8.87
=-7.67

The Probability of Financial Distress (%) (PFD) was then obtianed by:

PFD=1/(1 + e^(-LPFD))*100%
=0.05%

The eight explanatory variables are:

1. NIMTAAVG = Net Income to Market Total Assets

NIMTAAVG=Net Income / Market Total Assets
=Net Income / (Market Cap + Total Liabilities)

*Note that for companies reported quarterly, geometrically declining weighted quarterly Net Income data in latest four quarters are used.

2. TLMTA = Total liabilities to Market Total Assets

TLMTA=Total Liabilities / Market Total Assets

3. CASHMTA = Cash to Market Total Assets

For non-financial companies, CASHMTA is measured as:

CASHMTA=Cash, Cash Equivalents, Marketable Securities / Market Total Assets

4. EXRETAVG = Excess Return compared to the S&P 500

EXRETAVG is the weighted excess return compared to the S&P 500 in past 12 month. Geometrically declining weights are imposed on the monthly excess return to reflect lagged information. The weight is halved each quarter.

5. SIGMA = Standard Deviation of Daily Returns

For sigma, we use the annualized standard deviation of a company's returns over the past 92 days (or 63 trading days).

6. RSIZE = Relative Size

RSIZE=log (Market Cap / Total Market Cap of S&P 500 companies)

7. MB = Market to Adjusted Book Equity Ratio

MB=Market Cap / Adjusted Book Equity
=Market Cap / (Total Stockholders Equity + 0.1 * ( Market Cap - Total Stockholders Equity))

8. PRICE

PRICE is measured as the log of the stock price, capped at log(15).

What does a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% mean?
CanSino Biologics (CASBF) has a Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% as of Jul. 15, 2026.
Is CanSino Biologics' Probability of Financial Distress (%) too high?
CanSino Biologics' current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. Overall, CanSino Biologics has a GF Score™ of 69/100 and is considered Significantly Undervalued, reflecting its overall financial health beyond just this single metric.
How does CanSino Biologics' Probability of Financial Distress (%) compare to ZTS and UTHR?
CanSino Biologics' Probability of Financial Distress (%) of 0.05% can be compared against companies in the Drug Manufacturers industry. See the competitive comparison table and distribution chart on this page for a detailed peer-by-peer breakdown.
What is a good Probability of Financial Distress (%) for a Drug Manufacturers company?
A good Probability of Financial Distress (%) depends on the Drug Manufacturers industry context. However, Probability of Financial Distress (%) should not be evaluated in isolation — investors should consider it alongside profitability, growth, and financial strength metrics. Use the industry distribution chart on this page to see where any company falls relative to its peers.
What does a high Probability of Financial Distress (%) mean?
A high Probability of Financial Distress (%) can signal that a stock is expensive relative to its fundamentals. CanSino Biologics's current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. However, context matters — high-growth companies often justify higher valuations. Always evaluate alongside other metrics like GF Score™ and GF Value™.
Is CanSino Biologics stock overvalued right now?
Based on GuruFocus' analysis, CanSino Biologics (CASBF) is currently considered Significantly Undervalued. The stock's GF Value™ is $8.72, compared to a current price of $2.60 — trading 70.2% below its estimated fair value. The current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05%. CanSino Biologics' overall GF Score™ is 69/100 with 3 warning signs to review. Investors should evaluate multiple metrics — including profitability, growth, and financial strength — before making a decision.
How is Probability of Financial Distress (%) calculated?
Probability of Financial Distress (%) is calculated from a company's financial statements. For CanSino Biologics (CASBF), the current Probability of Financial Distress (%) is 0.05% as of Jul. 15, 2026. GuruFocus calculates this using data sourced from SEC filings and annual reports. See the calculation section and 30-year financial data on this page for the full breakdown.

Is CanSino Biologics (CASBF) Overvalued in 2026?

Based on GuruFocus' analysis, CanSino Biologics stock appears to be undervalued. The current stock price of $2.60 is trading 70.2% below its estimated GF Value™ of $8.72. GuruFocus considers CanSino Biologics to be Significantly Undervalued.

Key valuation signals for CASBF:

  • Probability of Financial Distress (%): 0.05%
  • GF Value™: $8.72 vs. price of $2.60 (70.2% below fair value)
  • GF Score™: 69/100 with 3 warning signs

No single metric tells the full story. See the CASBF stock analysis page for a complete view including 30-year financials, guru trades, and insider activity.

CanSino Biologics Business Description

Address 185 South Avenue, 401-420, 4th Floor, Biomedical Park, TEDA West District, Tianjin, CHN
CanSino Biologics Inc is engaged in the research and development, manufacturing, and commercialization of vaccine products for human use. The company has a broad portfolio of vaccines and vaccine candidates for several disease areas. Its commercial-stage products are Menhycia and Menphecia, iPneucia, Convidecia and Convidecia Air, and XBB.1.5 Variant, and Ad5-EBOV. The company's clinical-stage products include Tetanus Vaccine, DTcP Infant, Tdcp Adolescent and Adult, Recombinant Poliomyelitis Vaccine, PBPV, and Recombinant Zoster Vaccine, among others. Additionally, it has various vaccine candidates in pre-clinical programs, targeting diseases such as influenza, meningitis, pneumonia, and others. Geographically, the company generates maximum revenue from the People's Republic of China.
69GF Score

Get the complete analysis for CASBF

Probability of Financial Distress (%) is just one metric. See GF Value™, 30-year financials, guru trades, warning signs, and more.

$2.60
Price
$8.72
GF Value